银川市2000—2020年土地利用时空变化特征及预测

为探究银川市土地利用的时空变化特征,基于2000、2010、2020年3期土地利用数据,通过土地利用变化、景观生态学和元胞自动机(cellular automata, CA)-Markov模型,定量研究了20年间银川市土地利用景观格局变化特征,并对土地利用变化进行模拟预测。结果表明:耕地、林地、水域和未利用土地面积减小,草地和城乡工矿居民用地面积增加,各土地利用类型之间转换较为强烈,土地利用变化结构的主体为草地和城乡工矿居民用地,土地利用程度不断加深但具有区域差异性特征;土地利用景观形状的复杂程度增加,城市空间不断扩张,整体景观都趋于平均,景观异质程度增强,景观向多样化方向发展趋势;CA-Markov模型能有效模拟银川市土地利用变化情况且具有较高精度,Kappa系数为0.828 5;2030年耕地、林地和未利用土地面积减少,草地和城乡工矿居民用地面积增加。人口数量与结构、国内生产总值(gross domestic product, GDP)、经济增长以及区域宏观政策是研究区各类土地利用类型变化的主要驱动因素。

Research on spatial and temporal variability characteristics and prediction of land use in Yinchuan from 2000 to 2020

Land resources are the link between human social economic activities and natural ecological processes. In order to know well the temporal and spatial characteristics of land use in Yinchuan City, based on land use data of three periods (2000, 2010 and 2020 year) which interpreted from Landsat images. Employing LUCC analyzing models such as intensity of land use change, dynamic degree of land use, land use degree and landscape ecological method, spatial and temporal variability characteristics of landscape pattern of land use in Yinchuan from 2000 to 2019 were analyzed, and then land use patterns were simulated and predicted in 2020 and 2030 using CA-Markov model respectively. The results showed that: (1) During 20 years, the area of farmland, forest land, water and unused land decreased, and area of grass land and urban and rural construction land increased. Different type of land use converted intensely, the principle parts of land use change structure were grassland and urban and rural construction land, and the land use degree increased 23.35, which presented the degree of land use were deepening gradually with regional characteristics. (2) The complexity of landscape shape increased with urban space expanding continuedly, the overall landscape tends to be uniformity, the landscape heterogeneity was increasing and diversity was enhancing. (3) CA-Markov model could simulate the land use variation with high accuracy, which Kappa coefficient was 0.8285. And the areas of farmland, grassland and unused land would be decreased, and the area of grassland and urban and rural construction land would be increased in 2030. (4) Population size and structure, GDP and economical invest, and regional macro policies were main driving factors of land use structure adjustments and changes in Yinchuan. The overall land use in Yinchuan city was in a rapid development period, and the landscape space pattern was significantly affected by human activities, the study could provide scientific evidence for scientific planning management and ecological sustainable development of land resources of Yinchuan.