高超声速巡航导弹作战效能建模与评估

在高超声速巡航导弹概念设计阶段，为了避免对某些性能指标要求过高，需要对其作战效能进行评估与分析。分析了高超声速巡航导弹攻防对抗过程和高超声速巡航导弹在作战任务剖面中所面临的威胁，采用美国武器工业界效能咨询委员会的ADC方法，建立了高超声速巡航导弹作战效能评估顶层模型，进一步分解顶层模型并对该模型进行合理改进。在分析作战能力各个指标的基础上，建立了突防能力指标、命中概率指标和杀伤概率指标的解析解模型，并给出了效能评估结果。最后对影响高超声速巡航导弹作战效能的关键因素进行了分析，结果表明：缩减巡航导弹的雷达反射截面积(RCS)有助于降低其被雷达发现的概率和发现距离；增大巡航速度则可以降低防御系统的可射击概率和拦截毁伤概率，从而提高其作战效能。

Combat Effectiveness Modeling and Evaluation of Hypersonic Cruise Missiles

In the conceptual design of hypersonic cruise missiles,the evaluation of the missile combat effectiveness is necessary to avoid excessive index in the missile performance requirements.The attack and defense engagement course and the faced threat in the operational mission profile were analysed for the missile.The top layer model of the combat effectiveness evaluation for the missile was established by the ADC method proposed with the weapon system effectiveness industry advisory committee(WSEIAC) in the U.S.,and the model was decomposed and improved reasonably.On the basis of analysing the every combat effectiveness index,the analytical models of the indexes of penetration capability,hit probability and damage probability were established.The combat effectiveness evaluation results were given.The key factors that affect the effectiveness of missiles are discussed.The results show that reduction of the radar cross section(RCS) of the missiles can decrease the probability and the distance found by the radar;and the increase in the missile velocity can decrease both the fire probability and the intercept damage probability of the defense system in the enemy side,consequently,increasing the combat effectiveness of the missiles.