恐怖组织网络的时空演化规律

为了理解恐怖组织网络的时空演化特性及形成机理,本文运用统计物理学方法,结合Multi-agent,提出了一个恐怖组织网络的时空演化模型, 并对恐怖组织网络的演化规律进行了数值模拟研究.模拟过程中考虑了恐怖组织网络在时间与空间上节点与边的动态联结变化.研究发现:网络演化过程中, 恐怖组织的网络演化不仅兼具小世界、无标度特性和等级结构,不同级别的中心节点将网络连为一体,而且存在促进恐怖网络不断演化的主要因素, 即与恐怖分子信念的增加及环境资源的增长有关; 反恐方的选择性打击对网络的增长具有抑制作用和一定的控制效果.

Empirical Study on Spatiotemporal Evolution of Terrorism Organization Network

To understand spatiotemporal evolution of terrorism organization network and reveal its information mechanism. In this paper, from the view of network science, statistical physics and multi-agent method are proposed to explore time-space evolution of terrorism organization network. The model of time-space evolution is presented to understand terrorism organization network. In the evolution process, dynamical (correction) changes of nodes and edges with time and space for terrorism organization network are considered by designing algorithm. It is found in numerical simulation that, the evolution of terrorism organization network possess small-world effect and scale-free property at the same time, and the whole network have hierarchical structure with different level centre nodes. Increasing factors of belief and resource can also effect on continuous evolution of network. If government around the world take effectively selected measures to attack the terrorism organization, which can be inhibited to a certain extent or under control. But the counter terrorism is the future still a long-term arduous.