2005—2020年灌云县甲型病毒性肝炎流行病学特征及预测分析

目的 掌握2005—2020年灌云县甲型病毒性肝炎(甲肝)分布特征,为该县制定甲肝防控策略提供科学依据。方法 描述分析2005—2020年灌云县甲肝的流行病学特征,并运用ARIMA模型预测该县2021—2022年甲肝发病趋势。结果 2005—2020年共报告224例甲肝病例,年均发病率为1.34/10万,发病率6.98/10万~0.10/10万,不同年度发病率差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=405.103,P<0.001)。无暴发疫情发生。男性发病率1.77/10万,高于女性的0.87/10万(χ^(2)=25.317,P<0.001)。20~39岁年龄组发病率最低(0.65/10万),40岁以后随年龄增加而升高,60~79岁达高峰(2.57/10万),各年龄组发病率差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=69.748,P<0.001)。发病人群以农民(工)多发,占63.84%(143/224),其次为学生(27例)、离退人员(11例)和商服餐饮人员(10例)。每年每月均有甲肝病例报告,呈现春季和秋季两个季节高峰。城镇发病率2.35/10万,高于农村的1.13/10万(χ^(2)=28.419,P<0.001)。通过ARIMA模型,预测该县2021—2022年甲肝发病率为0.33/10万,较2020年呈下降趋势,流行强度仍然较低。结论 2005—2020年灌云县甲肝疫情呈总体下降趋势,甲肝防控取得明显成效。今后应进一步做好适龄儿童预防接种、加强重点人群综合防控措施。

Epidemiological characteristics and prediction of hepatitis A in Guanyun County from 2005 to 2020

Objective To master the disease distribution characteristics of viral hepatitis A (hereinafter referred to as "hepatitis A") in Guanyun County from 2005 to 2020, so as to provide scientific evidence for formulating hepatitis A prevention and control strategies in the county. Methods Epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis A epidemic in Guanyun County from 2005 to 2020 were described and analyzed, and ARIMA model was used to predict the incidence trend of hepatitis A in Guanyun County from 2021 to 2022. Results From 2005 to 2020, 224 cases of hepatitis A were reported, and the average annual incidence rate was 1.34/105. The incidence rate was 0.10/105 to 6.98/105, and the highest incidence rate was in 2006 and the lowest was in 2018. The incidence rate of different years was statistically significant (χ2=405.103, P<0.001). There was no outbreak. The incidence rate of the male (1.77/105) was higher than that of the female (0.87/105) (χ2=25.317, P<0.001). The incidence rate of the 20-39 year old group was the lowest (0.65/105). The incidence rate increased with age and reached peak age at 60-79 years old after 40 years old (2.57/105) (χ2=69.748, P<0.001). Farmers (workers) were the most common, accounting for 63.84% (143/224), followed by students (27 cases), retirees (11 cases) and commercial service catering personnel (10 cases). Hepatitis A cases were reported every month, showing two seasonal peaks in spring and autumn. The incidence rate in urban areas was 2.35/105, higher than that (1.13/105) in rural areas. (χ2=28.419, P<0.001). Through the ARIMA model, the incidence rate of hepatitis A in the county was predicted to be 0.33/105 in 2021-2022 years, which showed a downward trend compared with that in 2020, and the epidemic intensity was still low. Conclusion From 2005 to 2020, the epidemic situation of hepatitis A in Guanyun County showed an overall downward trend, and remarkable results were achieved in hepatitis A prevention and control. In the future, we should further improve the vaccination of school-age children and strengthen the comprehensive prevention and control measures for key groups.