基于能值-成本的资源型省域绿色GDP核算及可持续发展评价

为了评价资源型省域的可持续发展水平,本文研究资源型省域绿色GDP的核算体系,选取典型研究区,综合运用能值分析法和成本法,将不可更新资源、环境损耗中的各种能量转换成能值-货币价值,并在传统GDP中扣除,得到资源型省域的绿色GDP值与年际变化,再构建可持续发展评价指标体系,分析研究区的可持续发展状况并提出对策。结果表明:以山西省为例,在2000~2014年间,传统GDP增长速度较快,绿色GDP增长相对比较缓慢且2013~2014年保持平稳趋势,绿色GDP在传统GDP中所占比重不断下降,总体的可持续发展水平较低。这与能值交换率显著相关,有赖于山西省的产业结构、经济增长依靠煤炭等不可更新资源的特点,省内资源开发程度较高,对外界资源依赖性较低,对外贸易以输出能值为主。因此,在去产能的新常态下,山西省必须加快产业结构调整,转变经济发展方式,提高经济发展的质量和效益,实现绿色可持续的发展。

Green GDP Calculation and Assessment of Sustainability Development for Resources-based Regions by Energy Analysis and Cost Method

In order to evaluate the sustainable development level of resource-based regions and discuss the accounting system of green GDP, this paper combines the emergy analysis with cost method, transfers from all kinds of energy of non-renewable resouce and environmental loss to currency value, deducts from the traditional GDP, and obtains green GDP value and annual change of resources-based regions.Then assessment system of sustainablility development is estiblished to analysis sustainable situation of study area, and proposes the corresponding measures. The results show that the traditional GDP increases rapidly, but the green GDP increases relatively slowly with a stable trend in 2013 and 2014 and continuous decrease of ratio to GDP from 2000 to 2014 in Shanxi Province, which is a typical example of resources-dependent region. The sustainable ability of Shanxi Province is evaluated as a low level, which has a significant relationship with energy exchange rate. It can be resulted in the industrial structure and method of economic growth, which is heavily relied on coal and other non-renewable resources, and it is characterized by high-development of internal resources, self-sufficiency resources, and export-oriented foreign trade. Therefore, under the new normal economy of overcapacity reduction, Shanxi Province must accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure and transformation of economic development mode to improve the quality and efficiency of economic development, and realize green, sustainable development.