部分国家长期温室气体低排放发展战略比较分析

面向21世纪中叶的长期低排放发展战略是继国家自主贡献之后,衡量各国长期减排努力的重要文件。文中针对已向《联合国气候变化框架公约》秘书处正式提交长期低排放发展战略的12个国家,从各国战略的总体结构、主要内容和实施面临的挑战等方面进行了比较分析。研究发现各国长期减排力度存在较大差别,分行业和分气体类型的减排目标分解仍较为初步,战略涉及的中长期减排目标与全球长期温升控制目标之间仍存在较大差距,长期减排政策措施的经济性尚不明确,并且对发展中国家的资金援助与需求间仍存在巨大缺口,这些问题均会严重制约长期低排放战略的后续有效实施。为推动中国长期战略的制订,文中从持续对各国战略跟踪分析、强化“两步走”战略安排下分阶段减排目标和任务分析研判、强化对战略路径特别是薄弱环节的梳理和拓展研究,以及加强对中国跨领域前瞻性相关重大战略问题的深入研究等4个方面提出了政策建议。

Comparison analysis of the long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies of main countries

The long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategy is another key document after the nationally determined contribution, both of which serve as measures of each Party’s mitigation efforts. This study compares and analyses the 12 long-term low-emission development strategies submitted to the UNFCCC secretariat, and summaries key findings from perspectives including the storylines, main contents and the challenges ahead. It is found that the long term emission reduction ambitions are very different among all countries and the breakdowns of national targets into targets by sector and by gas type are still very preliminary. At the same time, considering the big gap between the mid-to-long term mitigation ambitions and the needs to achieve the global temperature increase target, the very limited economic feasibility analysis on main tasks and measures, the gap between the climate finance assistance and the targets set by UNFCCC, there are still great challenges ahead regarding the implementation of the strategies. Based on the key findings, policy recommendations are proposed mainly from four perspectives, including keeping tracking analysis on the submitted long-term strategies and the related key strategies, enhancing analysis on the two-step mitigation targets and tasks in line with China’s two-step approach to build China into a great modern socialist country by the middle of the century, intensifying trimming researches and extended researches on the weakest parts regarding the mitigation pathway, reinforcing analysis on crosscutting strategic issues closely related to the long-term emission reductions.