| 人群就医行为模拟在医疗卫生服务系统动力学建模研究中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 欧崇阳,张鹭鹭,卢杨,田伟,仇元峰,朱燕刚,郑椋友,郝璐.人群就医行为模拟在医疗卫生服务系统动力学建模研究中的应用[J].中华医学科研管理杂志,2007,20(4):207-210,232. |
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| 作者姓名： | 欧崇阳 张鹭鹭 卢杨 田伟 仇元峰 朱燕刚 郑椋友 郝璐 |
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| 作者单位： | 200433,上海,第二军医大学卫生勤务学系卫生事业管理学教研室 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科学基金重点项目（70333002）;第二军医大学博士研究生创新基金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的构建医疗卫生服务系统模型的人群就医选择的动力学模块，仿真模拟并分析人群行为对系统结构的影响，探讨系统资源结构演化的动力机制。方法数据主要来自国家三次卫生服务调查资料和国家统计年鉴资料；HDS模型的构建和人群就医行为的模拟使用系统动力学理论与方法。结果构建医疗卫生服务系统动力学模型的人群就医选择模拟功能模块；模型模拟结果符合预期，人群就医选择模型仿真模拟结果具有较好的真实性和稳定性。结论人群就医选择的动力学模块是HDS建模研究的核心内容之一，是应用系统动力学理论和方法进行HDS结构演化模拟的关键步骤，模型的构建将为政策试验组的干预试验提供平台。
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| 关 键 词： | 卫生服务研究 卫生保健提供 人口群体 计算机模拟 系统动力学 模型 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-04 |
Medical behavior emulation of population in dynamics modeling research of health delivery system |
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| OU Chong-yang,ZHANG Lu-lu,LU Yang,TIAN Wei,QIU Yuan-feng,ZHU Yan-gang,ZHENG Liang-you,HAO Lu.Medical behavior emulation of population in dynamics modeling research of health delivery system[J].Chinese Journal of Medical Science Research Management,2007,20(4):207-210,232. |
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| Authors: | OU Chong-yang ZHANG Lu-lu LU Yang TIAN Wei QIU Yuan-feng ZHU Yan-gang ZHENG Liang-you HAO Lu |
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| Affiliation: | Military Health Management Academy, Faculty of Health Service, Second Military Medical University,Shanghai 200433 ,P. R. China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To construct crowd flow section of health delinery system model ,to analyze the influence of crowd behavior on system structure, and to discuss the mechanism of system resources structure evolution. Methods Quotative data from three National Health Service investigation reports and national statistics yearbooks. Results crowd choice simulation section was constructed and the model analogue resuh was anticipated with good authenticity and stability. Conclusion crowd choice simulation section is the core of HDS modeling, and the crucial step of HDS structure evolution research. The construction of this model will provide an important platform for policy experiments and interventions. |
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| Keywords: | Health services research Delivery of health care population groups Computer simulation System dyuamics models |
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