北部湾南流江流域土地覆盖及生物多样性模拟

以北部湾独流入海河流南流江流域为研究对象，基于研究区2000年和2015年遥感数据解译的土地利用数据以及社会经济等数据，采用CLUE-S模型对未来2030年生态保护情景、自然增长情景以及粮食安全情景的土地利用格局进行了模拟预测，在此基础上采用InVEST模型对流域过去和未来不同情景的生物多样性进行了评估，探讨了流域生物多样性的生境质量和生境退化程度.结果表明：2000~2015年南流江流域建设用地、园地、水域和未利用地呈现出增加趋势，其中建设用地的增幅最大，而耕地和林地减幅最大.流域土地系统中共存在着34种土地网络转移流关系，上游存在24种，中游20种，下游28种，耕地与建设用地、耕地与林地以及林地与园地之间的转换占到流域总土地利用变化的70.74%.CLUE-S模型模拟未来土地利用的Kappa系数达到0.86，表明模型模拟未来情景的土地利用精度满足要求.2000年、2015年、2030年生态保护情景、2030年自然增长情景以及2030年粮食安全情景流域生境质量总得分和平均得分分别为866630，900357，921055，876231，865370和0.7457，0.7747，0.7925，0.7539，0.7466.2030年3种情景的中上游和下游地区生物多样性都呈现出不同程度的改善趋势，而中游地区则表现出退化趋势.

Simulation of land cover and biodiversity in Nanliu river basin in Beibu Gulf

In this paper, the Nanliuj river basin of Beibu Gulf, which flows into the Haihe River alone, was taken as the research object. Based on the land use data interpreted by remote sensing data in 2000 and 2015, and social and economic data, the CLUE-S model was applied to the ecological protection scenario in 2030. The land use patterns of natural growth scenarios and food security scenarios were simulated and predicted. On this basis, the InVEST model was used to evaluate the biodiversity of different scenarios in the past and future, and the habitat quality and degradation degree of biodiversity in the watershed were discussed. The results indicated:(1) From 2000 to 2015, the construction land, garden land, water area and unused land in Nanliu river basin showed an increasing trend, in which the construction land increased the most, while the cultivated land and woodland decreased the most. (2) There were 34 kinds of land network transfer flow relationships in the basin land system, including 24 in the upstream, 20 in the middle and 28 in the downstream. The conversion between cultivated land and construction land, cultivated land and forest land and between forest land and garden land accounted for 70.74% of the total land use change in the river basin. (3) When CLUE-S model was used to simulate future land use, Kappa coefficient reached 0.86, indicating that the land use accuracy of the model to simulate future scenarios met the requirements. (4) The total and average scores of habitat quality in the watershed of the 2000, 2015 and 2030 ecological protection scenarios, 2030 natural growth scenarios and 2030 food security scenarios were respectively 866630, 900357, 921055, 876231, 865370 and 0.7457, 0.7747, 0.7925, 0.7539 and 0.7466. (5) In the future 2030, the biodiversity of the three scenarios in the middle and upper reaches of the region and the lower reaches of the region showed different degrees of improvement, while the middle reaches showed degradation.