PCA-逐步回归模型在能耗评估指数中的应用及预测

能耗评估指数的高低是衡量能源消费水平的重要因素,基于SPSS22.0,应用主成分分析法(PCA)研究了影响贵州省能源消费评价的要素,结合贵州省的实际情况和相关数据进行降维提取主成分,得出生活质量指数是影响贵州省能源消费水平最重要的第一内生因素,再依据综合得分Y构建2001-2012逐步多元回归分析能耗评估指数预测模型,用2013-2017年的五组数据验证模型的合理性.结论 研究表明,贵州省的能耗评估指数与地区生产总值、能源工业投资、终端能源消费量呈正相关,而与单位GDP能耗呈负相关,为贵州省能源消费指数评价提供有效参考.

PCA-Stepwise Regression Model Used in Energy Consumption Assessment Index and Its Prediction

The energy consumption assessment index is an important factor to measure the energy consumption level.Based on SPSS22.0,the application of principal component analysis(PCA)is used to study the factors affecting the energy consumption assessment of Guizhou Province,combined with the actual situation of Guizhou Province and related data.Dimensional extraction of the main components,the quality of life index is the most important first endogenous factor affecting the energy consumption level of Guizhou Province,and then based on the comprehensive score Y to build a 2001-2012 stepwise multiple regression analysis energy consumption assessment index prediction model,with 2013-2017 the rationality of the five sets of data validation models for the year.The conclusion research shows that the energy consumption assessment index of Guizhou Province is positively correlated with regional GDP,energy industry investment and terminal energy consumption,but negatively correlated with energy consumption per unit of GDP,which provides an effective reference for the evaluation of energy consumption index in Guizhou Province.