| CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM
OSCILLATIONS |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 高新全 张欣 钱维宏 |
| |
| 作者单位： | Laboratory for Climate Studies (LCS) of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), National
Climate Center (NCC);Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Peking University;Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Peking University |
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| 基金项目： | National Natural Foundation of China (No.90502001), the doctoral project of the Ministry of
Education of China and the State Key Development Program for Basic Research of China (2006CB400501) |
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| 摘 要： | Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for
the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various
oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature
series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that
temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be
obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature
proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the
natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The
results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the
interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate
change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude
that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.
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| 关 键 词： | climate change trend and oscillation natural climate system nonlinear model system |
CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM
OSCILLATIONS |
| |
| GAO Xin-quan,ZHANG Xin and QIAN Wei-hong.CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM
OSCILLATIONS[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2006,12(2):139-149. |
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| Authors: | GAO Xin-quan ZHANG Xin and QIAN Wei-hong |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Laboratory for Climate Studies LCS of China Meteorological Administration CMA, National Climate Center NCC, Beijing 100081 China
2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Peking University,Beijing 100871 China |
| |
| Abstract: | Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for
the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various
oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature
series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that
temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be
obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature
proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the
natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The
results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the
interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate
change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude
that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system. |
| |
| Keywords: | climate change trend and oscillation natural climate system nonlinear model system |
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