我国粮食出口市场势力的实证分析——以玉米为例

本文以玉米为例并利用五个主要出口对象国的面板数据对我国粮食出口的市场势力进行了实证检验。研究结论显示,我国在韩国、日本和马来西亚玉米市场上不存在市场势力,在朝鲜和印度尼西亚市场上则存在一定的市场势力,而总体上我国玉米出口仅存在微弱的市场势力,很难获得玉米的国际市场定价权;2008年的金融危机对我国玉米出口价格产生了一定的冲击,但从回归系数和显著性水平上来看负面影响不大。进而从欧美发达国家出口垄断、国内玉米生产成本及我国玉米的价格贸易条件三个方面对我国玉米出口市场势力较弱的原因进行了分析,并提出了相应的对策建议。

An Empirical Analysis on the Market Power of China’s Grain Export: The Case of Maize

Taking maize as the example, this article empirically tested the market power of China’s grain export with the panel data of five export targeted countries. The results show that only in the markets of North Korea and Indonesia, China maize export exists certain market power while in South Korea, Japan and Malaysia, there is no market power at all. As a whole, the market power of China’s export of maize is very week so that the pricing power in international maize markets is hard to obtain. The financial crisis in 2008 impacted on China’s export price of maize at some extent, but the negative effects were not serious judging from regression coefficient and significance level. This article analyzed the reasons which caused week market power in the perspectives of export monopoly from European and American developed countries, the production cost and price trade terms of China’s maize, and provided some advices.