基于可拓熵理论的泥石流危险性评价

评价泥石流危险性的方法有很多,但是各有局限,需要探究危险性评价新方法。利用可拓学原理构建一组能够描述泥石流危险性评价指标的物元模型,采用熵理论计算物元模型中各评价指标的权重值,建立基于可拓熵理论的泥石流危险性评价模型,并通过Visual Basic开发一个基于该模型的泥石流危险性评价软件。选取云南省东川地区12条典型泥石流沟作为检验对象,基于可拓熵理论的评价方法对各沟危险性评价的结果与现有资料完全吻合,从而验证该方法的有效性;进一步以危险评价模型对美姑河柳洪沟流域进行泥石流危险性评价,评价结果同样与现场勘察情况相一致。评价结果表明,基于可拓熵理论的模型能准确地评价泥石流危险等级,开发软件大大减少评价的工作量。

Debris flow hazard assessment based on entropy theory and extenics

There are many methods to evaluate the hazard of debris flow, but each of them has its limitations. This article aims to explore a new way for risk assessment. Based on the extenics theory, a set of matter-element models capable of describing the hazardassessment index of debris flow are constructed. With the entropy theory which is used to calculate the weights of each evaluation index in the matter-element model, the debris flow risk assessment model is established. Considering to simplify the complexity of the calculation process of the model, a debris flow hazard assessment software was developed by Visual Basic. Twelve typical debris flow ditches in Dongchuan area of Yunnan Province were selected as the test objects. The results of the hazard evaluation of each ditch deduced by this method are in good agreement with the existing data, which verifying the effectiveness of the method. Furthermore, the model is applied to evaluate the risk of debris flow in the Liuhonggou watershed of Meigu River, and the general use process of the method is presented. The evaluation result is also consistent with the site survey. The model based on extension entropy theory can evaluate the danger level of debris flow accurately, while the software developed reduces the evaluation workload greatly.