长三角地区住宅售租比时空格局演变及影响机制

中国住宅租赁市场与住宅买卖市场的不对称发展,使住宅租金与住宅价格过度偏离,不利于住宅市场的健康发展,从住宅售租比视角切入住宅研究对解决“住有所居”问题具有重要意义。以长三角三省一市县级单元为研究区域,利用LISA时间路径和时空跃迁等方法,分析2008—2018年长三角住宅售租比的时空格局及演化特征,运用地理探测器模型探究住宅价格与住宅租金的驱动因素,进而提炼售租比演变的影响规律及效应。研究发现：① 长三角住宅售租比呈快速上涨态势,售租比及其涨幅总体呈现出由东至西、由南至北递减的空间格局。② 长三角售租比空间结构具有较强的稳定性、依赖性和整合性,其中稳定性由东至西呈减弱态势,路径依赖和锁定特征逐渐强化。③ 经济、社会、人口和预期因素对住宅价格和住宅租金的影响依次降低,各特征变量对住宅价格和住宅租金相对影响程度基本一致。④ 经济增长的稳定性使住宅售租比空间格局具有较强的固化效应,人口流动作用下产生传导效应,社会因素的影响具有保障作用,预期因素作用下使住宅市场具有较多的投机性。

Spatio-temporal pattern evolution and influence mechanism of housing price-to-rent ratio in the Yangtze River Delta

The asymmetrical development of China's housing market leads to excessive deviation between housing rent and housing price, which obstructs the healthy development of the residential market. Therefore, it is of great significance to study current problems from the perspective of housing price-to-rent ratio. Taking the county-level units of three provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta as the research area, this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal pattern and evolution characteristics of the housing price-to-rent ratio in the Yangtze River Delta from 2008 to 2018 by using the methods of LISA time path and space-time transition, and uses the geographical detector to explore the driving factors of housing price and rent, and then refines the influence rule and effect of the evolution of housing price-to-rent ratio. The results show that: (1) The housing price-to-rent ratio of residential buildings in the study area is increasing rapidly, which has already exceeded the internationally recognized reasonable range, and the price-to-rent ratio and its increase generally show a decreasing trend from east to west and from south to north. (2) The spatial structure of housing price-to-rent ratio in the delta has strong stability, dependence and integration, among which the stability is weakened from east to west, and the path dependence and locking characteristics are gradually strengthened, and there is a certain spatial spillover effect. (3) The influence of economy, society, population and expectation factors on housing price and rent decreases in turn, and the integrity of the housing market development makes the relative influence degree of each characteristic factor on housing price and rent basically consistent. (4) The stability of economic growth has a strong solidification effect on the spatial pattern of the housing price-to-rent ratio. There is a transmission effect under the influence of population mobility. The influence of social factors has a protective effect, the role of expected factors makes the housing market more speculative. Driven by the four major factors of economy, population, society and expectations, the spatial and temporal differentiation patterns of housing price-to-rent ratio in the Yangtze River Delta have been formed.