产业转移背景下广东省工业碳排放的驱动因素及碳转移分析

随着全球气候变暖,工业碳排放量持续增加已成为全球关注的热点,由于工业产业升级和转移所引起的碳排放空间重塑也成为低碳发展研究的新方向。本文综合运用碳排放量物料平衡法及结构分解模型,核算2001—2017年广东省城市工业各行业的碳排放量,揭示其时空格局演变规律,同时在产业转移背景下,分析工业碳排放变化的驱动因素以及碳转移格局变化,以期从各市碳排放变化与市际间碳排放转移两个角度探讨低碳发展的有效策略。研究表明：2001—2017年期间,广东省的工业碳排放量整体呈现增加趋势,且地区差异也逐渐增大,呈现由中心向周边扩散的空间特征,由单核心演变为“T字型”的空间分布格局;工业产业发展带来的环境效应由经济规模、产业结构和技术强度综合决定,其中规模效应的作用强度最大、技术效应次之,结构效应的作用最弱;工业碳排放转移格局呈现由珠三角地区向外围转移的趋势,珠三角地区为高、中能耗工业碳排放主要转出地,粤东西北地区为高、中能耗工业碳排放主要转入地。

Driving factors and carbon transfer of industrial carbon emissions in Guangdong province under the background of industrial transfer

The continuous increase of industrial carbon emissions, one of the causes for global warming, has become a hot topic, which attracts wide attention in the world. At the same time, the spatial remodeling and differences of industrial carbon emissions are caused by industrial upgrades and transfers. Therefore, these topics have consisted of a new direction for research related with low-carbon city construction. This article uses methods, such as carbon emissions material balance method and structural decomposition model, to calculate the carbon emissions of various industries in Guangdong's cities at the prefecture level, from 2001 to 2017. Besides, this article analyzes the driving factors of industrial carbon emissions differences and explores the pattern of industrial transfer and its carbon transfer under the background of industrial transfer policies in Guangdong. With the above methods and models, the study found that, as a whole, industrial carbon emissions of the province showed an increasing trend, and regional differences gradually increased, which means that the gap among cities has enlarged during the period 2001-2017 in terms of industrial carbon emissions. The distribution pattern of industrial carbon emissions within the province showed that a trend of changing from spreading from a single core to the surroundings to eventually evolving into a “fractal T-shaped” pattern. The environmental effects brought by the development of the industrial industry are determined comprehensively by three factors, which are the economic scale, industrial structure, and technological strength. Among them, the scale effect has the largest influence, while the structure factor is rather weak. The technical effect can play a more important role in regions with low-carbon emission intensity. The Pearl River Delta region is the place where the main high-energy-consuming industries are transferred out, and the inter-annual change in carbon emissions is relatively large. The cities of eastern and western Guangdong are the main places where the medium-energy-consuming and high-energy-consuming industries are transferred in, and the inter-annual change in carbon emissions is small.