| 提高月度售电量预测精度的一种新方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 潘小辉,刘丽萍,李扬.提高月度售电量预测精度的一种新方法[J].电力需求侧管理,2013(3):11-15. |
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| 作者姓名： | 潘小辉 刘丽萍 李扬 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 东南大学 电气工程学院,南京,210096
2. 泰州供电公司,江苏 泰州,225306 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对地区售电量历史数据的研究分析，挖掘出其发展的规律和特点，并创新性地提出了一种月度售电量预测的新疗法该方法在预测某月售电量时，先预测出该月所在季度的季度售电量，再根据占季比和所在季度的季度售电量的预测值，预测出该月的售电量，若该月处于春节影响期将最后给予修正．利用该预测新方法对江苏某市2005年4月至2007年12月的月度售电量进行了预测，预测的平均相对误差为2．35％，顶测精度得到了较大的提高，证明了该预测新方法的准确性和可靠性。
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| 关 键 词： | 数据挖掘分析 温斯特法 月度售电量预测 |
A new method to promote the forecasting accuracy of monthly electricity consumption |
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| PAN Xiaohui
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LIU Liping
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LI Yang.A new method to promote the forecasting accuracy of monthly electricity consumption[J].Power Demand Side Management,2013(3):11-15. |
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| Authors: | PAN Xiaohui LIU Liping LI Yang |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China; 2. Taizhou Power Supply Company, Taizhou 225306, China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper finds the principles and characters of the development of electricity consumption hy making data mining analysis on historical data, and puts forward a new method to fore- cast monthly electricity consumption. When forecasting the electricity consumption of a month, the new method firstly forecasts the electricity consumption of the season that the month belongs to. Then use the Forecasting values of the season electricity consumption and season proportion to forecast the monthly electricity consumption. The new method has been applied to forecast monthly electricity consumption from April of 2005 to December of 2007 in a city of Jiangsu province. With 2.35% average relative error, the results show the validity of the new method. |
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| Keywords: | data mining analysis Wenshite method the forecasting of monthly electricity consumption |
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