基于平行系统的恐怖突发事件下恐惧传播的仿真研究

理解恐怖突发事件下公众对恐惧的反应是反恐的一个非常关键性的问题. 针对恐怖突发事件下恐惧传播的演化过程, 应用平行系统的思想, 采用仿真软件Stella构建了恐惧传播演化的人工系统. 此研究主要有两个目的: 1)恐怖事件发生后, 在一个城市中影响恐惧传播的关键性要素有哪些; 2)分析恐惧如何演化传播. 研究表明, 恐惧的传播具有一定的规律性, 社区干扰越强, 恐惧传播的时间将会延长; 恐怖事件发生之初, 风险感知能力增长较快但下降较慢. 这些发现对理解恐怖突发事件下公众对恐惧的反应具有较强的指导意义.

The Simulation of Fear Diffusion Based on Parallel System under the Paroxysmal Terrorism Incident Circumstance

Understanding those factors critical to predicting response of the fear is crucial to ability to model the consequences of a terrorist strike in an urban area. The parallel system is proposed to research fear diffusion under the paroxysmal terrorism incident circumstance. This paper presents application Stella software to construct the artificial system of fear evolution. This study intends to accomplish two goals. First, find which factors will influence fear diffusion. Hence, we propose a system model and provide simulation output depicting the diffusion of fear in a community. Second, how fear will evolve and diffuse. The systems model to examine how fear might diffuse within a community immediately following a terrorist attack. Our experimental results show that fear diffusion complies with definite rules: the more interference from the community, the more delay of fear diffusion; Perceptions of risk vary very quickly but decline quite slowly, at earlier of terrorism incident. These findings should prove useful to those wishing to predict public response to a variety of different contingencies involving terrorism.