| 基于混沌蚁群算法的电力短期负荷预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李慧,王来运. 基于混沌蚁群算法的电力短期负荷预测[J]. 北京机械工业学院学报, 2011, 0(4): 40-43 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李慧 王来运 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]北京信息科技大学自动化学院,北京100192 [2]湖北省水利水电规划勘测设计院北京分院,北京100053 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（11072038）;北京市教育委员会科技计划面上项目（KM201010772011）;北京市属市管高等学校人才强教深化学术创新团队项目（PHR201007130） |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对电力负荷变化规律和影响因素的分析,提出了一种新的短期电力负荷预测模型。首先利用混沌理论将杂乱无章的历史数据进行相空间重构,找出其中的潜在规律,并粗选预测参考点;然后利用蚁群优化算法,考虑距离因素和相点演化的相关性因素,对粗选的预测参考点作进一步精选,提高其质量;最后采用GM（1,1）灰色模型得到预测日的负荷数据。实际算例验证了提出的方法具有较好的预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 混沌理论 蚁群算法 短期负荷预测 |
Short-term load forecasting of power system based on chaotic and ant colony algorithm |
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| LI Hui,WANG Lai-yun. Short-term load forecasting of power system based on chaotic and ant colony algorithm[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Machinery, 2011, 0(4): 40-43 |
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| Authors: | LI Hui WANG Lai-yun |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Sehool of Automation, Beijing Information Seienee and Teehnology University, Beijing 100192, China; 2. Beijing Branch, HuBei Institute of Water Conservaney and Hydroelectric Engineering Exploration and Design,Beijing 100053,China) |
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| Abstract: | By analyzing the changing rule and the influence factor of power load,a novel short-term load forecasting model is proposed.Firstly,chaotic theory is used to reconstruct phase space of power load time series and to cursorily select forecasting reference points.Secondly,ant colony optimization algorithm is introduced to select forecasting reference points more accurately,considering distance and relativity of phase points’ evolution.Finally,GM（1,1） model is applied to forecast load data.The actual forecasting results prove that the new approach has better forecasting accuracy and convergence. |
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| Keywords: | chaotic theory ant colony algorithm short-term load forecasting |
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