| 改进的GM(1,1)模型在城市需水量预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 原玉昌,王轶,孙珂,戴会冉.改进的GM(1,1)模型在城市需水量预测中的应用[J].水利科技与经济,2011,17(3):7-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 原玉昌 王轶 孙珂 戴会冉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华北水利水电学院,郑州,450011
2. 南阳市水利建筑勘察设计院,河南,南阳,473000 |
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| 摘 要： | 基本GM(1,1)模型未充分利用新信息,且背景值构造不合理,对变化非平稳的数据序列预测精度较低,为此,本文采用重构背景值和等维递补原理对基本GM(1,1)模型进行改进,建立重构背景值的GM(1,1)等维递补模型,并运用改进模型预测北方某市需水量,结果表明,改进模型预测精度更高,为需水量的预测提供了一种新方法.
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| 关 键 词： | 需水量预测 灰色预测 重构背景值GM(1 1) 等维递补GM(1 1) |
Application of the Improved Grey Model in Water Demand Prediction |
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| YUAN Yu-chang,WANG Yi,SUN Ke,DAI Hui-ran.Application of the Improved Grey Model in Water Demand Prediction[J].Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy,2011,17(3):7-9. |
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| Authors: | YUAN Yu-chang WANG Yi SUN Ke DAI Hui-ran |
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| Affiliation: | 1.North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,Zhengzhou 450011,China;2.Nanyang City Water Conservancy Construction Survey Design Institute,Nanyang 473000,Henan,China) |
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| Abstract: | The basic GM（1,1） model can＇t completely use new information,and the construction of it＇s background value is unreasonable,the forecasting precision of non-smooth data series is low.So this article adopt reconstructing background value and equi-dimensional supplement theory to improve the basic GM（1,1） grey model,then use the improved model to fit and predict the industrial water demand of BaoJi city,he result shows that it has higher predicting precision and can be used as one of the tools of predicting the urban water demand. |
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| Keywords: | prediction of water demand grey predicting model reconstruct ground value GM（1 1） equi-dimensional supplement GM（1 1） |
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