| 改进重力模型在铁路客运量预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李凯,马驷,许传粉,汪颖,褚岩.改进重力模型在铁路客运量预测中的应用[J].石家庄铁道大学学报(自然科学版),2014(4):94-97. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李凯 马驷 许传粉 汪颖 褚岩 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031 |
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| 摘 要： | 对重力模型参数随时间变化的规律进行了研究,用正弦函数描述了重力模型参数的波动规律,改进了原有重力模型将参数标定为常数的缺陷,并通过数据拟合对实例进行了验证,结果表明该模型预测精度较高。
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| 关 键 词： | 重力模型 铁路运输 运量预测 |
Application of Improved Gravity Model in the Railway Passenger Traffic Volume Forecast |
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| Li Kai,Ma Si,Xu Chuanfen,Wang Ying,Chu Yan.Application of Improved Gravity Model in the Railway Passenger Traffic Volume Forecast[J].Journal of Shijiazhuang Railway Institute(Natural Science),2014(4):94-97. |
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| Authors: | Li Kai Ma Si Xu Chuanfen Wang Ying Chu Yan |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper studies the law of gravity model parameters changing over time, using a sinusoidal function to describes the volatility of the gravity model parameters, improving the defects of original gravity model in which the parameters are calibrated as a constant, which is validated with instances through data fitting, and the results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is high. |
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| Keywords: | gravity model railway transportation traffic volume forecast |
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