基于蒙特卡洛法的保障方案评估研究

为保证经费使用效益,针对目前装备保障缺乏有效的评估方法,且制定保障方案时随意性较大的问题,提出了一种基于蒙特卡洛法的装备保障方案评估方法。根据现有装备保障的运行体制和机制,通过构建装备保障评估仿真模型,建立相对应的预防性维修过程子模型、修复性维修过程子模型和保障资源配置子模型,计算出基于现有保障方案的优化费效曲线及相关参数。通过某型飞机的保障方案实际计算,该方法能够对保障方案的备件、资源、设备利用率等方面进行评估,为任务执行前的保障方案评估提供了有效手段。提出的模型和软件能为装备保障人员提供有力的决策支持。

Study on Evaluation of Equipment Support Plan Based on Monte Carlo Method

In order to ensure the effectiveness of the use of funds,a method of equipment support plan evaluation based on Monte Carlo method is proposed to solve the problems of the lack of effective evaluation methods for equipment support at present and the arbitrariness in the formulation of equipment support plans.According to the existing operational system and mechanism of equipment support,by constructing equipment support evaluation simulation models,the corresponding preventive maintenance process sub-model,repairing maintenance process sub-model and support resource allocation sub-model were established,and the optimized cost-effectiveness curve and related parameters based on the existing support plans were calculated.Through the actual calculation of the support plan of a certain type of aircraft,this method can evaluate the spare parts,resources and equipment utilization of the support plan,and provide an effective means for the evaluation of the support plan before the mission is performed.The proposed model and software can provide powerful decision support for equipment support personnel.