交通方式划分的非集计模型——以蚌埠为例

为研究影响城市交通结构的主要因素,建立出行者属性与个体出行方式选择的合理关系模型.所有的出行者相关属性数据均由统计资料获得,方式选择数据由蚌埠市居民出行调查的数据获得.应用非集计模型来建立个人属性、家庭属性和出行属性与方式选择间的函数关系.建模结果表明:居民出行交通方式选择与个人属性、家庭属性和出行属性之间有较稳定的关系,其随着时间的推移变化甚微.非集计模型所推算的交通方式结构较为精确,可用于交通方式结构的预测.此外,所建模型亦能识别方式分担的主要影响因素,从而实现交通方式结构优化.

Application of discrete choice model in trip mode structure forecast: a case study of Bengbu

In order to find the main factors that influence the urban traffic structure, a relational model between the travelers'characteristics and the trip mode choice is built. The data of urban residents' characteristics are obtained from statstical data,while the trip mode split data is collected through a trip survey in Bengbu. In addition, the discrete choice model is adopted to build the functional relationship between the mode choice and the travelers' personal characteristics, as well as family characteristics and trip characteristics. The model shows that the relationship between the mode split and the personal, as well as family and trip characteristics is stable and changes little as the time changes. Deduced by the discrete model, the mode split result is relatively accurate and can be feasibly used for trip mode structure forecasts. Furthermore, the proposed model can also contribute to find the key influencing factors on trip mode choice, and restructure or optimize the urban trip mode structure.