长江上游防洪体系对1954年洪水的防洪作用研究

长江上游洪水是形成全流域洪水的重要来源。根据长江流域综合利用规划及防洪规划的总体部署，以三峡水库为核心的长江上游控制性水库群陆续建成并投入运行，对长江中下游的防洪形势带来了明显的改善。以年度长江流域上游水库群的联合调度方案和《长江防御洪水方案》批复的水库运用原则和方式为基础，对在现有防洪工程体系下应对1954年洪水的流域防洪形势的变化情况进行了分析。研究结果表明，长江上游水库群的联合防洪可以有效减轻三峡水库的防洪压力，对比无水库调度时，大幅度地减少了中下游地区的超额洪量约200亿m3，能有效地保证长江中下游河道的行洪安全。

Study on effects of present upstream flood control system in Changjiang River against 1954 flood

Floods in the upstream Changjiang River is a main source of flood formation for the entire basin. According to the comprehensive planning of Changjiang River basin and the general deployment of flood control planning, upstream controlling reservoirs, including the key one of Three Gorges Reservoir, are constructed successively and put into operation, which significantly improve the flood control in the middle and lower reaches of the basin. Based on the joint operation scheme of reservoirs group and reservoir operating principles and modes approved by "Flood Control Programs for Yangtze River", the flood control situation in case of 1954 type flood occurring again under present flood control system is analyzed. The results show that joint operation of upstream reservoirs of the Changjiang River can effectively relieve flood control pressures for Three Gorges Reservoir by reducing the flood volume by 2.0×1010 m3 than that in 1954, which effectively improve the flood discharge safety for middle and lower reaches.