基于MaxEnt模型预测苹红缢管蚜在中国的适生区

为评估苹红缢管蚜Rhopalosiphum oxyacanthae入侵我国的潜在地理分布范围,基于其在全球的118个分布点和筛选的9个环境变量数据,利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件对苹红缢管蚜于当前和未来气候条件下在我国的潜在适生区进行预测。结果表明,基于苹红缢管蚜的全球分布数据,MaxEnt模型预测的平均AUC值为0.919,预测结果准确性较高。当前气候条件下,苹红缢管蚜在我国的总适生区面积占全国陆地面积的48.73%,其中高、中、低适生区的面积分别占全国陆地面积的5.92%、13.30%和29.51%,高适生区主要位于河南、江苏、安徽、湖北、湖南、贵州、江西、浙江、福建、广西、台湾等省区。未来RCP2.6和RCP8.5气候情景下,苹红缢管蚜在我国的总适生区面积增加并呈逐渐向东北方向迁移扩散的趋势,其中低适生区面积逐渐增加,高、中适生区面积逐渐减少,原先中南部的高适生区逐渐转变为低适生区或非适生区,但新疆维吾尔自治区北部、吉林省与辽宁省边界处的高适生区面积呈逐渐增加趋势。表明苹红缢管蚜在我国的适生范围极为广泛,具有较高的入侵风险,应加强进境口岸对该虫的检疫监管力度。

Potential distribution prediction of apple-grass aphid Rhopalosiphum oxyacanthae in China based on MaxEnt model

To assess the potential distribution range of apple-grass aphid Rhopalosiphum oxyacanthae af-ter its invasion into China, the MaxEnt model andArcGIS software were used to predict its potential suit-able areas under current and future climatic conditions based on the data of 118 global occurrence points and nine selected environmental variables. The results showed that the average area under curve value predicted by MaxEnt model was 0.919, indicating a higher prediction accuracy. Under the current climat-ic conditions, total potential suitable areas for R. oxyacanthae in China occupied 48.73% of the total land area, among which the highly, moderately and slightly suitable areas accounted for 5.92%, 13.30% and 29.51% of the total land area, respectively. The high suitable areas were mainly located in Henan, Jiang-su, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangxi and Taiwan provinces (autono-mous regions). Under future climate scenario of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, the total suitable areas of R. oxyacanthae would be increased and tend to move northeast, where the slightly suitable areas would be grad-ually increasing, while the highly and moderately suitable areas would be gradually decreasing; the original highly suitable area in south and central China would gradually change to slightly suitable or unsuit-able areas, but some highly suitable areas in northern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the junc-tion of Jilin and Liaoning provinces tend to enlarge. Therefore, R. oxyacanthae has an extensive poten-tial distribution in China and a high risk of invasion. It is suggested that the quarantine supervision of R. oxyacanthae should be strengthened in the import ports.