黄河三角洲滨海湿地退化过程的时空变化及预测分析

以1991、1995、1999、2004、2009年和2013年Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI遥感影像作为数据源，从景观和土地利用角度分析黄河三角洲大尺度范围的滨海湿地退化状况，并利用马尔科夫过程模型模拟2021年研究区滨海湿地的演变趋势。结果表明：1999-2004年和2004-2009年是黄河三角洲湿地退化较严重的两个时段，退化湿地占自然湿地总面积近40%，2009年以后，研究区退化得到一定的缓解。预计至2021年，湿地占区域陆地面积的比例将下降至60%。与2013年相比，自然湿地和人工湿地面积占比将分别下降4.52个百分点和3.08个百分点，草本沼泽、灌丛湿地、森林湿地和盐沼面积将分别减少32.21、15.76、19.33 km²和74.86 km²。由此可见，未来黄河三角洲滨海湿地的生态保护与修复工作仍十分艰巨。

Spatio-temporal changes and trend prediction of degraded coastal wetlands in the Yellow River Delta

The Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI remote sensing images as of 1991, 1995, 1999, 2004, 2009, and 2013 were selected as data sources to analyze large scale range coastal wetland degradation in the Yellow River Delta in the view of landscape and land use. The Markov process model was applied to simulate and predict the evolution trends of coastal wetlands of 2021 in the region. Results showed that the most serious wetland degradation in the Yellow River Delta appeared in the two periods of 1999-2004 and 2004-2009. The area proportion of degraded wetlands to the total natural wetlands was nearly 40%. The wetland degradation in the study area had been alleviated to a certain degree since 2009. Up to 2021, the proportion of wetlands to land area would fall to 60%. Compared with 2013, the proportion of natural wetland and constructed wetland would decrease by 4.52 percent point and 3.08 percent point, respectively. The area of marshes, shrub wetlands, forest wetlands, and salt marshes would decline by 32.21, 15.76, 19.33 km² and 74.86 km², respectively. Therefore, the ecological protection and restoration work of coastal wetlands in the Yellow River Delta will be still arduous in the future.