供应商管理库存下基于消费者行为偏好的全渠道运营策略

在供应商管理库存背景下，研究了消费者线上参考效应、线下库存效应以及渠道偏好对供应链成员运营策略的影响。利用微分博弈和连续型动态规划理论获得了独立运营、基于供应商服务成本分担契约的部分合作运营以及协同运营三种模式下的成员策略及绩效。由比较静态分析和对比分析发现：库存效应对生产量具正向影响，对产品质量、大数据营销服务和线下服务具负向影响；消费者不同条件下的线上偏好对企业决策有不同的影响；供应商服务成本分担契约能激励零售商提升线下产品服务，一定程度上改进企业独立运营的绩效水平。为进一步协调分散式供应链，在上述契约基础上设计了供应商收益分享及双边成本分担契约。数值算例发现：新契约在一定条件下可实现分散式供应链的完美协调；消费者参考质量过度依赖品牌商誉易产生"锚定心理"，不仅会抑制成员生产和服务积极性，造成库存积压，阻碍品牌商誉积累，损害企业利润，也不利于消费者获得更好的购物体验。

Omni-Channel Operation Strategy Based on Consumer Behavior Preference under Vendor Managed Inventory

In the context of vendor managed inventory, the influence of consumers’ online reference quality effect, offline inventory effect and channel preference on the operation strategy of supply chain members are studied. Using differential game theory and continuous dynamic programming theory, the members’ strategies and performance under three modes of independent operation, independent operation based on cost-sharing contract of supplier service, and cooperative operation are obtained. The comparative analysis shows that cost-sharing contract of supplier service can encourage the retailer to improve the service of offline products, so as to improve the performance of independent operation mode in Pareto.In order to further coordinate the decentralized supply chain, the contract of supplier benefit sharing and bilateral cost sharing is designed based on the unilateral cost-sharing contract of supplier service. The numerical example shows that whether the contract of supplier benefit sharing and bilateral cost sharing is accepted by the members of the supply chain is related to the profit-sharing proportion of the supplier. Under the premise that this contract is valid, the members’ strategies of this contract are to reach the level of cooperative operation when the cost-sharing proportion of the members meets certain conditions. At this time, this contract can achieve perfect coordination of the performance of decentralized supply chain.By the research on consumers’ online reference quality effect, offline inventory effect and channel preference, it shows that reference quality effect can reduce the enthusiasm of the supplier’s big data marketing service and the retailer’s offline service, but can motivate the supplier to improve the product quality. At the same time, consumers’ reference quality rely excessively on goodwill will easily lead to "anchoring mentality", which will not only inhibit the enthusiasm of channel members in production and service, cause inventory backlog, hinder the accumulation of goodwill, lead to the reduction of profits of enterprises, but also not conducive to consumers to obtain a higher and better shopping experience. Secondly, for inventory effect, enterprises should increase the production quantity appropriately, and reduce the product quality, big data marketing service and offline service level accordingly. Finally, the influence of consumers’ different channel preference on enterprise decision-making is different.