滑坡变形趋势判断及时间效应研究

为研究滑坡的变形趋势及时间效应，首先采用三次样条法插值对监测数据进行预处理，再利用R/S分析方法分析各监测点的监测数据及滑坡变形的时间效应。结果表明：各监测点两序列的Hurst指数均大于0.5，都具有持续性增长的趋势，但变形-时间序列较速率-时间序列具有更强的持续性；滑坡的主要变形路径将随后期的持续变形而有所改变，并使其余各监测点的变形趋势也有所改变。通过上述研究，以期对滑坡后期的工程治理有一定的指导意义。

Determination of landslide deformation trend and study of time effect

To study landslide deformation trend and time effect, first, the cubic spline interpolation was used to preprocess the monitoring data. Then, R/S method was adopted to analyze the measured data at the monitoring points and the time effect of landslide deformation. The results indicate that the Hurst index of the two sequences at each monitoring point is greater than 0.5, which shows a successive growth trend, but the deformation-time sequence is more persistent than the rate-time sequence. Moreover, the analysis on time effect of the landslide deformation shows that the main deformation route will change with the successive deformation in later period, which makes deformation trends of the rest monitoring points change as well. The study on the trends and time effect of the landslide deformation can guide the engineering treatment of rockslides in future.