| 洪水预报不确定性分析及其在水库调度决策中的应用研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘艳丽,王国利,周惠成.洪水预报不确定性分析及其在水库调度决策中的应用研究[J].水力发电学报,2010,29(1). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘艳丽 王国利 周惠成 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 大连理工大学,土木水利学院,大连,116024 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金委员会、二滩水电开发有限公司雅砻江水电联合研究基金项目(50579095); 国家自然科学基金项目(50809011) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 洪水预报是汛期水库调度决策的重要支持,其不确定性将直接影响到水库调度运行.传统的模型参数优选方法未考虑不确定性,得到的最优参数在一些场次洪水预报中精度不高,难以满足汛期水库调度要求,需要研究洪水过程预报的不确定性辅助水库调度决策.本文基于常用的水文预报模型和水文不确定性GLUE分析方法,对洪水预报的不确定性进行分析,并将其引入水库调度决策中,建立了应用不确定性分析进行水库调度的决策模型.结果表明,考虑洪水预报不确定性,将能在期望意义上提高洪水预报水平,更好地为水库调度提供决策支持,发挥水库综合效益.
|
| 关 键 词： | 洪水预报 不确定性分析 GLUE 大伙房模型 水库调度决策 |
Uncertainty analysis of flood forecasting and its application to reservoir operation |
| |
| LIU Yanli
,
WANG Guoli
,
ZHOU Huicheng.Uncertainty analysis of flood forecasting and its application to reservoir operation[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2010,29(1). |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Yanli WANG Guoli ZHOU Huicheng |
| |
| Affiliation: | LIU Yanli,WANG Guoli,ZHOU Huicheng(School of Civil , Hydraulic Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024) |
| |
| Abstract: | A key technique of reservoir operation during flood periods is the flood forecasting in which the effect of flood uncertainty is considered.The traditional parameter optimization method however ignores such an uncertainty,and thus the accuracy of optimized parameters and the forecast for some floods is not good enough.Based on the uncertainty analysis of flood forecasting in the GLUE framework,this paper proposes a decision-making system for reservoir operation.Results show an improvement on forecast accura... |
| |
| Keywords: | flood forecasting uncertainty analysis GLUE(Generalized Likelinhood Uncertainty Estimation) DHF model reservoir operation decision-making |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
