农业气候资源变化对双季稻生产的可能影响分析

基于长江中游地区50 个气象台站自1960 年以来的历年地面气象观测资料,分1960-2009 及1960-1984、1985-2009 年3 个不同时间段,分温度生长期、早稻生长期、晚稻生长期分别分析了热量、光照、降水等农业的变化特征,并讨论对双季稻生产的可能影响。1960-2009年,该地区温度生长期平均气温、平均日最低气温、平均日最高气温的平均增速分别为0.08 ℃/10 a、0.09 ℃/10 a、0.07 ℃/10 a,≥10 ℃活动积温的平均增速为66.3 ℃/10 a,日照时数的平均减速为31.7 h/10 a,降水量的平均增速为3.7 mm/10 a。表现为温度上升、积温增加、温度生长期延长、日照时数减少、降水量微弱增加的变化特征。温度升高、积温增加可能导致发育速度加快、生育期缩短、病虫害加重,日照时数减少可能影响叶片光合及产量。早稻生长期的平均气温、≥10 ℃活动积温的增速分别为0.20 ℃/10 a、48.9 ℃/10 a,晚稻生长期分别为0.09 ℃/10 a、14.6 ℃/10 a,早稻和晚稻生长期间日照时数的下降速率分别为18.6 h/10 a、42.7 h/10 a,降水量的增加速率分别为1.9 mm/10 a、8.7 mm/10 a,表现为升温速率早稻大于晚稻,日照时数下降速率晚稻大于早稻,降水量增加速率晚稻大于早稻。早稻期间升温和积温增加明显可能有利于早稻提前播种、选用生育期稍长的品种、提高产量潜力和产量,晚稻期间升温不明显且日照时数下降则可能不利于群体光合和产量形成,影响其产量潜力和产量。区域中的江汉平原、洞庭湖平原等基础条件好的地区,其热量、日照、降水同步增加,其他地区则表现为热量、降水增加,但日照时数下降,要充分发挥其基础条件好与气候资源丰富且同步增加等优势,发展高效规模化生产,增强稻谷生产能力。

Analysis on Possible Influences of Agricultural Climate Resources Change on Double-season Rice Production

Based on the daily weather data of 50 meteorological observation stations from 1960 to 2009 in the middle reach of the Yangtze River, the change characteristics of agricultural climate resources including heat, light and precipitation of temperature-defined growth season, early-season rice growth season and late-season rice growth season during 1960-2009, 1960-1984 and 1985-2009 were analyzed respectively, and its possible influences on double-season rice production were discussed in this paper. From 1960 to 2009 in the middle reach of the Yangtze River, the climatic tendency of mean daily temperature, mean daily minimum temperature, mean daily maximal temperature, active accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃, sunshine hours and precipitation were 0.08 ℃/10 a, 0.09 ℃/10 a, 0.07 ℃/10 a, 66.3 ℃/10 a, -31.7 h/10 a and 3.7 mm/10 a respectively during temperature-defined growth season. So the change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in this region were temperature increasing, accumulated temperature adding, temperature-defined growth season prolonging, sunshine hours decreasing and slight precipitation increasing. So increasing temperature and adding accumulated temperature were likely to accelerate crop development, shorten crop growth duration, and aggravate crop disease and pest, at the same time, the decreasing sunshine hours might affect leaf photosynthesis and yield. The climatic tendency of mean daily temperature, and active accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ were 0.20 ℃/10 a and 48.9 ℃/10 a during early-season rice growth season, and 0.09 ℃/10 a and 14.6 ℃/10 a during late-season rice growth season. The climatic tendency of sunshine hours was -18.6 h/10 a during early- season rice growth season, -42.7 h/10 a during late-season rice growth season, while precipitation was 1.9 mm/10 a during early-season rice growth season, 8.7 mm/10 a during late-season rice growth season. So the tendency of temperature increasing during early-season rice growth season was more than that during late-season rice growth season, but the tendency of precipitation increasing, sunshine hours decreasing during late-season rice growth season were more than those during early-season rice growth season. Therefore, obvious temperature increase and accumulated temperature addition during early-season rice growth season might be advantageous to advance sowing date, select variety with relatively long growth duration,improve the yield potential and yield for early-season rice. But unobvious temperature increase and obvious sunshine hours decline during late-season rice growth season might be disadvantageous to photosynthetic enhancement, yield formation, and affect yield potential and yield improvement for late-season rice production. Heat, light and precipitation were increasing synchronously in some regions such as Jianghan Plain and Dongting Lake Plain which had good basic condition for rice production. In other regions, the change of agricultural climate resources was asynchronous, the heat and precipitation was increasing, but the sunshine hours was decreasing. Furthermore, the advantage of good basic condition and predominant climatic resource could be utilized to develop sweeping rice production with high efficiency, and to enhance rice production potential.