| 中国货币政策效果的实证检验:1995-2008年 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢朝华,李忠,蒋礼圣.中国货币政策效果的实证检验:1995-2008年[J].长沙理工大学学报(社会科学版),2009,24(4):23-30. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢朝华 李忠 蒋礼圣 |
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| 作者单位： | 现代金融研究所,长沙理工大学,湖南,长沙,410076 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用实际货币供应量、实际利率、汇率和实际国民收入四个变量,建立SVAR(3)模型以检验1995-2008年期间中国货币政策的有效性.利用样本期间相关变量的季度数据进行向量自回归分析、约翰森协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应分析后发现:样本期间货币供给调整的短期效应远高于长期效应,实际利率对真实汇率水平的影响程度很低(对产出有负影响),实际汇率对实际产出有负影响.继续稳步推进利率市场化和适当放开汇率波动的幅度有利于强化货币政策的效果.
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| 关 键 词： | 货币政策 有效性 SVAR模型 |
An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of the Monetary Policy in China:1995-2008 |
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| XIE Chao-hua,LI Zhong,JIANG Li-sheng.An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of the Monetary Policy in China:1995-2008[J].Journal of Changsha University of Science & Technology,2009,24(4):23-30. |
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| Authors: | XIE Chao-hua LI Zhong JIANG Li-sheng |
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| Affiliation: | XIE Chao-hua,LI Zhong,JIANG Li-sheng(Institute of Modern Finance,Changsha University of Science & Technology,Changsha,Hunan 410076,China) |
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| Abstract: | This is an attempt to establish a structural vector auto regression(SVAR) model which contains the four variables of the actual money supply,real interest rates,exchange rates and real national income,to estimate the effects of the monetary policy of China from 1995 to 2008.After the process of vector autoregressive analysis,Johansen Co integration Test,Granger causality test and impulse response analysis based on the quarter data of the variables that related to our model during the samples,we find that th... |
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| Keywords: | monetary policy effectiveness structural vector auto-regression model |
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