中国省际人口迁移格局演变及其对城镇化发展的影响

基于2000年和2010年人口普查数据,利用多种指标和方法研究了中国省际人口迁移的格局演变及其对城镇化的影响。研究发现：省际迁入和迁出人口在空间分布上均呈分散化态势,迁入迁出重心均向北向东偏移,迁入地由广东省“一枝独秀”向多极化演变,安徽、四川、河南、湖南成为新的四大迁出地。利用净迁移流构建的省际人口迁移网络,表现出紧凑化和均衡化趋势;迁移流仍然是从中西部地区指向东部地区,但新增加迁移流集中指向长三角、京津以及福建。综合考虑省际人口迁移强度和方向,可将全国31个地区划分为净流入型活跃区、平衡型活跃区、净流出型活跃区以及非活跃区四种类型。省际迁移改变了迁入地和迁出地的城乡人口结构,通过不同模式促进了城镇化率的提高和省际差异的缩小,对2000-2010年全国城镇化率增加的贡献占到了18.13%。

Evolution of spatial pattern of inter-provincial migration and its impacts on urbanization in China

Since China's reform and opening up in 1978, the scale of inter-provincial migration increased sharply, especially from 2000 to 2010. The redistribution of inter-provincial migration has had significant influences on China's urbanization and socio-economic development. Using data from China's 2000 and 2010 censuses, this paper investigates inter-provincial migration by describing its spatial patterns and estimating its impacts on urbanization development with various indictors, such as geographic concentration index, gravity center of migration, composite index of migration, network analysis, and coefficient of variation. The results are as follows: 1) There have been escalating dispersion trends for the distribution of in- and out-migration, especially the out-migration. At the same time, the gravity center of in- and out-migration both move towards north and east. Besides, the destinations of migration has shifted from one single polar (Guangdong) in 2000 to multi-polar (Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Beijing, Fujian) in 2010; while Anhui, Sichuan, Henan and Hunan become the new top four sources of migration in 2010. 2) With the rapid growth of floating population, the network trend of inter-provincial migration is more prominent. Overall, the migration network of 2010 becomes more compacted, connective and balanced than that of 2000. At the regional scale, the migration of population is mainly from central and western to eastern China. The eastern region become the main destinations, while the central and western regions of China have become the main sources of inter-provincial migration, especially the "mid-belt subsiding" is more prominent. At the provincial scale, the increased migration flows mainly to Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Beijing, Tianjin, Fujian, etc. Besides, the migration flows formulate different models due to the effects of regional development disparities, migration distance and migration stocks. 3) The regional types of inter-provincial migration could be divided into four kinds: active regions have a larger floating population and their in-migration is much more than out-migration, which is mainly located in the eastern coastal provinces and Xinjiang; active regions have a larger floating population and their out-migration is much more than in-migration, which is mainly located in the central and western China; active regions have a larger floating population and their in-migration is nearly equal to out-migration; inactive regions have a smaller floating population, such as some provinces with a large ethnic minorities population. 4) Inter-provincial migration has a positive effect on the development of urbanization. It contributes to 18.13% of the increment of urbanization rate and it also narrows the disparities of urbanization rate among provinces, during 2000-2010. However, migrant workers account for most of the inter-provincial migration, and make great contributions to the development of urban socio-economy, but they cannot share the same identity with the citizens due to the household registration system. Therefore, it is necessary to accelerate the reform of household registration system and promote the citizenization of migrant workers.