基于平移相关法的黄河口溯源冲淤范围分析

河口延伸及流路改道的溯源影响是科学制定黄河下游河道治理与河口治理规划的关键问题之一，关系到治黄战略及策略的确定。基于沿程冲淤和溯源冲淤在时空上的传播特征，提出了平移相关分析方法，采用1950—1990年的水位数据，分析了黄河口流路演变对黄河下游河道的溯源影响过程和范围。结果表明:①黄河下游不同断面上的水位总体呈震荡上升趋势，水位变化过程在空间上并不完全同步，相同时间节点上各断面水位存在较大差别，具有扰动波的传播特征；②黄河下游沿程冲淤发展速率较快，冲淤扰动波从花园口传递到高村大约需要1 a，高村与艾山之间的冲淤变化则基本同步；③溯源冲淤发展速度较慢且存在滞后效应，泺口冲淤变化主要受利津前8 a冲淤变化的累积影响；④黄河口流路演变溯源影响主要在艾山以下，距离黄河入海口约350 km以内的河段主要受溯源冲淤影响。

Determine the spatial extent of backwater effects from the evolution of the Yellow River Estuary based on the translation correlation analysis

The knowledge of backwater effects of the Yellow River expansion is crucial to the decision-making of river regulation and training works in the Yellow River. In this study,we propose a new method,translation correlation analysis,based on the spatiotemporal propagation characteristics of headward and downward erosion and deposition. Waterlevel data for 1950-1990 were used to analyze the process and extent of effects of headward erosion and deposition resulting from the evolution of the Yellow River Estuary on the channels of the Lower Yellow River. The results show that water levels in different sections of the Lower Yellow River increase overall with fluctuations and that water level variation is not completely spatially synchronized. At the same time nodes,water levels differ greatly in different sections,showing the propagation characteristics of disturbance waves. In the Lower Yellow River,downward erosion and deposition development are rapid,and it takes approximately one year for erosion and deposition disturbance waves to propagate from the Huayuankou cross-section to the Gaocun cross-section of the Yellow River,while changes in erosion and deposition are basically synchronized between the Gaocun and Aishan cross-sections. Headward erosion and deposition are relatively slow,with a lag effect. Changes in erosion and deposition in the Luokou cross-section have mainly been affected by the cumulative effects of changes in erosion and deposition in the Lijin section over the past 8 years. Headward erosion and deposition due to the evolution of the Yellow River Estuary mainly influence lower reaches downstream of the Aishan cross-section,which is located approximately 350 km from the Yellow River Estuary.