2014—2016年湖南省毒蕈中毒的局部空间回归分析

目的 通过对湖南省毒蕈中毒的时空分析及影响因素研究,为毒蕈中毒的防控提供科学依据。方法 收集2014—2016年湖南省122个区(县)的毒蕈中毒监测数据,利用ArcGIS 10.2软件建立病例地理信息数据库,进行空间回归分析。结果 2014—2016年湖南省122个区(县)共报告毒蕈中毒4 081例,年均报告发病率为2.01/10万,病死率为0.61%(25/4 081),多数病例集中发生在6～9月。2014—2016年湖南省各区县毒蕈中毒发病存在空间聚集性,全局Moran''s I为0.327,P<0.01。毒蕈中毒发病情况与空间回归分析显示,毒蕈中毒发病情况与年平均温度、人均卫生机构数、中学生人数呈正相关,与中学教职工人数呈负相关。结论 湖南省是我国毒蕈中毒高发地区。湖南省毒蕈中毒发病存在空间聚集性,年平均温度、中学生人数、人均卫生机构数在空间层面上对毒蕈中毒发病具有一定程度的正向影响作用。中学教职工人数对发病呈现负向影响作用。

Local spatial regression analysis of mushroom poisoning in Hunan Province from 2014 to 2016

Objective To analyze the outbreaks of mycetism in Hunan Province from aspects including temporal-spatial distribution and risk factors, and to provide scientific basis for the control of mushroom poisoning. Methods Surveillance data was acquired on mushroom poisoning in 122 districts and counties in Hunan Province during 2014 and 2016. Software ArcGIS 10.2 was used to establishi geographic information database of cases and spatial regression was conducted. Results 4 081 cases of mycetism was reported in the 122 districts and counties in Hunan during 2014 and 2016, the average annual incidence was 2.01/100 000, the average case fatality rate was 0.61% (25/4 081), and most of the cases occurred during June and September. Spatial aggregation of cases was detected with Moran''s I=0.327, P<0.01. Spatial regression showed that incidence of mushroom poisoning was in positive correlation with average annual temperature, number of health institutions per capita, number of secondary school students, and in negative correlation with number of faculty and staff in secondary schools. Conclusion Hunan was among the high mycetism prevalence areas in China. There was spatial aggregation of incidents. Incidence of mushroom poisoning was in positive correlation with average annual temperature, number of health institutions per capita, number of secondary school students, and in negative correlation with number of faculty and staff in secondary schools.