基于人口和GDP的主要水污染物排放量预测——以秦皇岛市为例

伴随着国内经济的高速发展,环境问题特别是水污染问题尤为严重。水污染来源包括生活污染、工业污染、农业污染、水土流失等,人口和GDP是计算生活和工业污染的2个主要参数。以秦皇岛市为例,预测2020年主要水污染排放量。首先以秦皇岛市1990～2015年人口和GDP为基础,分别采用马尔萨斯(Malthus)模型和ARIMA(自回归积分滑动平均模型)模型预测得出2020年人口和GDP数据分别为321.32万人和1 420.14亿元,按照排污系数法进而得出与二者相关的生活污染物和工业污染物排放量,最后统计得出主要水污染物COD_(Cr)排放量为74 317.170 t,TN排放量为2 488.946 t,TP排放量为21 672.160 t。

Forecast on water pollutants emission load in Qinhuangdao City based on population and GDP

With the rapid development of domestic economy, environmental problems, especially water pollution, are particularly serious. Sources of water pollution include domestic pollution, industrial pollution, agricultural pollution, water loss and soil erosion etc. Population and GDP are two main parameters for the calculation of domestic pollution and industrial pollution. This paper takes Qinhuangdao City as an example to forecast water pollutants emission load in 2020. Firstly, based on the population and GDP from 1990 to 2015, we used the Malthus (Malthus) model and the ARIMA (auto regressive integrated sliding average model) model to forecast the population and GDP reaching 3.2132 million and 142.014 billion Yuan respectively at 2020. Then, we calculated the emission load of domestic pollution and industrial pollution that are related with population and GDP by pollution emission coefficient method. Finally, we calculated the main water pollutant emission loads of CODCr, TN and TP to be 74317.17t, 2488.946t and 21672.16t respectively.