系统发展对策生成的子系统流位反馈环结构分析法——以银河杜仲经济生态系统现代农业区建设为例

系统反馈环结构分析是生成促进系统良性发展对策的一个有效方法. 针对反馈环构建及其运行规律分析缺乏规范方法的问题，建立系统发展对策生成的子系统流位反馈环结构分析法：首先，采用流率基本入树建模法构建系统整体流图，用树枝向量行列式计算出流图全部反馈环；接着，根据系统目标划分子系统，确定各子系统流位变量，构建子系统的流位反馈环结构图；分析确定子系统各反馈环的关键变量，及影响关键变量的调控变量和调控因果链，揭示政策作用的杠杆点；最后，依据杠杆点和调控因果链、遵循整体对策生成原则，确定系统发展对策. 全文以银河杜仲经济生态系统现代农业区建设为实例，演示子系统流位反馈环结构分析方法的基本步骤，生成4项发展对策，对策实施效果证明了该方法的可行性和有效性.

Subsystems’ level variable feedback loops structural analysis method to generate system development strategies——An example of modern agriculture area construction in Yinhe Eucommia economic and ecological systems

System feedback loop structure analysis is an effective way to generate strategies for promoting the development of the system. For the lack of standardized methods for feedback loop construction and its operating rules analysis, a method named subsystems' level variable feedback loops structural analysis was provided. The process of the method is as follows: firstly, to construct the system's stock and flow diagram via rate variable fundamental in-tree modeling approach; then to calculate all feedback loops of the system by using the in-tree branch vector determinant calculation method; subsequently, to determine the subsystems according to the research question and management strategic objectives, to identify the level variables and feedback loops each subsystem involved and embed them, respectively; to analyze the feedback loop structure of each subsystem to reveal key variables, adjustable variables and adjustable causal chain of the loops, to obtain the policy leverage points for solving practical problems; classification analysis of all adjustable variables, establish a general system development strategy principle feedback loop diagram; finally, based on the policy leverage points and the general strategies generating principle, determine the system development strategies. As the application and demonstration of our method, an actual example of the modern agriculture area construction in Yinhe Eucommia economic and ecological systems was presented, where four management strategies were determined and implemented. oindent