| 航天发射场装备状态质量预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘松林,尚宏,李勇,郑海起.航天发射场装备状态质量预测模型研究[J].计算机测量与控制,2005,13(12):1387-1389. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘松林 尚宏 李勇 郑海起 |
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| 作者单位： | 军械工程学院,河北,石家庄,050003;中国卫星发射测控系统部保障部,北京,100101;北京航空航天大学,北京,100083;中国卫星发射测控系统部保障部,北京,100101;军械工程学院,河北,石家庄,050003 |
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| 基金项目： | 航天发射场地面装备质量管理研究课题(部委级资助项目) |
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| 摘 要： | 文中针对我国航天发射场装备使用状态质量缺乏有效评估和预测方法的现状，在对四种质量数学模型进行比较分析的基础上，提出了将指数平滑法与装备使用状态质最预测相结合的思想，构建了装备使用状态质量渐进衰变预测模型，并通过实例对预测模型进行了验证和比较；这些模型的建立，对装备使用状态质量评估和预测具有重大的理论意义和现实意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 四种质量 使用状态质量 渐进衰变模型 指数平滑法 状态质量预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-4598(2005)12-1387-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年9月19日 |
Research on Forecasting Model of State Quality of Spaceflight Launch Site Equipment |
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| Liu Songlin,Shang Hong,Li Yong,Zheng Haiqi.Research on Forecasting Model of State Quality of Spaceflight Launch Site Equipment[J].Computer Measurement & Control,2005,13(12):1387-1389. |
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| Authors: | Liu Songlin Shang Hong Li Yong Zheng Haiqi |
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| Affiliation: | Liu Songlin~ |
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| Abstract: | Considering the absence of efficient evaluation and forecast method for the state quality in use of spaceflight launch site equipment,based on the comparison between the mathematics models for four kinds of quality,the method that how to combine the exponential smoothing method with the equipment state quality forecast were put forward,the gradually disintegration forecast model for the equipment state quality was established.At last an example has been offered to validate the model.Great theory signification and realism signification in evaluating and forecasting state quality will be gained by establishing the above model. |
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| Keywords: | four kinds of quality state quality in use gradually disintegration model exponential smoothing method state quality forecast |
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