省域视角下中国森林碳汇空间外溢效应与影响因素

森林碳汇空间相关性与溢出效应对林业产业的区域统筹发展具有重要作用,科学核算各地区的森林碳汇量并分析其空间关联特征是制定差异化碳汇发展政策的重要基础。以森林蓄积量扩展法核算我国31个省(市、自治区)1993—2018年6次森林资源清查期间的森林碳汇量,探究省域间森林碳汇量的相关性特征,并利用空间计量模型分析森林碳汇的外溢效应和影响因素。结果表明：(1)我国整体森林碳汇量不断增加,不同地区的森林碳汇量差别较大。西南省份和东北林区森林碳汇量处于第一梯队,上海和北京碳汇增速较快。(2)研究期间内的Moran′s I指数先呈现倒“V”形的变化特征,之后又以较为稳定的趋势上升,我国各地区的森林碳汇分布存在显著的空间关联性。(3)森林碳汇的空间外溢效应显著,根据空间杜宾模型将外溢效应分解为直接效应、间接效应和总效应。林业管理水平和森林蓄积水平对本地和相邻地区森林碳汇量有正向影响,林业产业发展水平对本地区的森林碳汇量有负向影响。综上,我国各地方政府对差异化林业碳汇政策的制定和执行应兼顾区域因素,以我国林业政策的总体空间规划来综合统筹各区域森林政策,在“山水林田湖草沙”的命运共同体理念引领下,实现林业的...

Spatial spillover effects and influencing factors of forest carbon sink in China from provincial perspective

The regionally integrated development of the forestry industry is significantly influenced by the spatial correlation and spillover effects of forest carbon sinks. The scientific accounting of forest carbon sinks in each region and analysis of their spatial correlation characteristics provide a crucial foundation for developing differentiated carbon sink development policies. The forest stock expansion method was used to account for the forest carbon sinks of 31 Chinese provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) over six forest inventory periods from 1993 to 2018. The spatial econometric model was then used to analyze the spillover effects and influencing factors of forest carbon sinks. The findings revealed that:(1) China''s overall forest carbon sinks were increasing, while forest carbon sinks in different regions varied greatly. The forest carbon sinks in southwestern provinces and northeastern forest areas were in the first echelon, and Shanghai and Beijing had a faster growth rate of carbon sinks. (2) There was a considerable spatial association between the distribution of forest carbon sinks in different parts of China during the study period, and the Moran index initially displayed an inverted "V" shaped change before increasing in a more stable pattern. (3) The forest carbon sink had an obviously regional spillover effect, which was divided into direct effects, indirect effects, and total effects by the spatial Durbin model. Forest carbon sinks in the immediate area and its neighbors were positively impacted by forestry management and stock levels, while negatively impacted by forestry industry development levels. In conclusion, local governments in China should consider regional factors when developing and implementing differentiated forestry carbon sink policies, and should use the overall spatial planning of national forestry policies to thoroughly coordinate regional forestry policies in order to achieve green and high-quality development of forestry under the leadership of the "community of destiny of mountains, water, forests, fields, lakes, grasses, and forests".