基于区域水平衡理论和SWAT模型的沁河流域水收支平衡演变分析

基于区域水平衡理论和SWAT模型,提出了分布式水收支平衡模型的构建思路及水收支平衡计算方法,对人类活动和未来气候变化情景下的沁河流域水收支平衡状况进行模拟,并通过皮尔逊相关系数和Mann-Kendall检验方法分析了水收支平衡的关键影响要素及其演变规律。结果表明:2010—2016年沁河流域蓄水总量呈下降趋势,降水量及出口径流量为沁河流域水收支平衡相对关键的影响要素；未来多气候情景下蓄水总量呈上升趋势,多年平均降水量及出口径流量两个关键影响要素的总体变化情况与辐射强迫水平呈正相关关系；典型气候情景SSP2-4.5下降水量及出口径流量在2037—2041年、2061—2063年可能存在突变。

Evolution analysis of water budget balance in Qinhe River Basin based on regional water balance theory and SWAT model

Based on regional water balance theory and SWAT model, the construction idea of distributed water budget balance model and calculation method of water budget balance were proposed. The water budget balance of the Qinhe River Basin was simulated under human activities and future climate change, and the main factors affecting the water budget balance and its evolution patterns were analyzed with the Pearson correlation coefficient and Mann-Kendall test method. The results show that the total water storage in the Qinhe River Basin decreased from 2010 to 2016, and precipitation and outlet runoff are the key factors affecting the water budget balance in the Qinhe River Basin. In the future, the total water storage will increase under multiple climate scenarios, and the overall changes of annual mean precipitation and outlet runoff are positively correlated with the radiative forcing level. Under the typical climate scenario SSP2-4.5, the precipitation and outlet runoff may have abrupt changes from 2037 to 2041 and from 2061 to 2063.