从电力发展“十三五”规划看新能源发展

2016年11月7日,国家发展和改革委员会、国家能源局正式发布《电力发展“十三五”规划》。根据电力发展“十三五”规划相关发展目标和重点任务,结合中国新能源发展历程,通过数据对比,对中国“十三五”新能源发展的规模与速度、开发布局、市场消纳等进行了解析,并就高比例新能源电力系统规划的几个问题进行了探讨。分析表明：“十三五”期间,新能源装机增速将回落,但新增装机规模保持稳定;新能源开发布局将进行重大调整,布局优化调整任务能否完成关键在于新能源分散开发、分布式开发能否取得新突破;调整消纳困难地区新能源建设节奏、增强系统灵活性和适应性、有序推进可再生能源跨省区消纳是解决新能源消纳问题的三大举措。

Analysis on New Energy Development Based on the 13th Five-Year Electric Power Planning

On November 7^th, 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission and State Energy Administration officially issued the“13th Five-Year(2016-2020) Power Development Planning”. According to the goals and key tasks set by the planning, and based on the history of new energy development and related statistics, an analysis is made on the scale, speed, layout and market consumption of new energy development during the 13th Five-Year period, and several planning issues related to high percentage new energy are discussed. The results show that, during the 13th Five-Year period, the growth rate of installed capacity of new energy will decrease, but the newly installed capacity of new energy will keep stable. And the development layout of new energy is expected to be adjusted significantly, which depends on whether the distributed development of new energy can make a breakthrough. Three measures are proposed to solve the integration problems of new energy, including adjusting the construction pace of new energy in the regions that already have serious integration problems, increasing the flexibility and adaptability of the power system, and orderly facilitating trans-provincial new energy consumption.