湖北省大气污染健康风险空间格局与防范分区研究

该文以湖北省为例，从污染胁迫和社会脆弱性视角构建大气污染健康风险评价模型，引入变异函数方法分析各县区健康风险空间分异的总体特征与方向性规律，提出风险分区方案与防范策略.结果表明：1)全省大气污染水平总体处于接近超标水平，社会脆弱性处于中等脆弱状态，污染健康风险处于高风险状态；高风险区集中分布于省域中、东部地区，中、低风险区相对分散，在省域西部形成多处低值集聚区.2)各县区健康风险空间自相关最大距离为225.6 km，空间总变异主要来源于结构性因素且具有明显的方向性，其中东北－西南方向的变异程度最大，东－西、南－北方向依次降低，东南－西北方向风险的不均衡程度最低.3)根据污染超标水平与社会脆弱性相对大小，将各县区划分为污染主导型、社会脆弱主导型、污染－社会脆弱综合主导型风险区与无明显主导因子风险区4个类型，根据各区主导因子不同，从降低社会脆弱性和控污减排的双重视角提出分区防范策略.

Spatial pattern of air pollution's health risk and it's prevention zoning in Hubei Province

This research constructs the assessment model of air pollution and health risk of Hubei Province in the perspective of pollution stress and social vulnerability. The introduction of the variation function will help analyze the general characteristics and directionality of spatial differentiation on health risks in each county and propose risk zoning plans and prevention strategies. The results indicate that 1) the level of air pollution in the province exceeds the limits； the social vulnerability is in a medium level； and the health risks of pollution is in a high level overall. The high health risk areas are mainly distributed in the eastern and central regions of the Hubei Province. However， the medium and low risk areas are relatively scattered and there are many spots of low-risk level pollution in the west part of Hubei Province. 2) The maximum distance of spatial autocorrelation of health risk in each county is 225.6 km. The total spatial variation mainly results from the structural factors and their obvious directionality. The greatest variation is observed in northeast-southwest region. Whereas， the variation of direction in east-west and south-north decreases systematically. The unbalance in the southeast-northwest is the lowest. 3) According to the partition criterion (the relative excess of pollution and social vulnerability)， counties is able to be sorted into four types pollution dominant， social fragile dominant， pollution-social fragile comprehensive dominant and no obvious dominant factor risk zones. And in this context， risk prevention strategies are put forward in the perspectives of promoting energy conservation and emission reduction and reducing social vulnerability.