| Abstract: | As the course of schizophrenia shows a large variability, a prognosis of outcome is extremely difficult. The search for valid predictors shows that there exist numerous predictors with variable predictive significance for distinct outcome criteria and also for different phases of the illness. The indications in the literature are accordingly variable or even inconsistent. The following statements seem us to be proved: A good premorbid social adjustment, a harmonious premorbid personality, and an acute onset of the illness predict a better course, whereas an insidious onset and a development of marked negative symptoms correspond to a poorer outcome. A combination of several factors improves the predictive significance. The importance of the following indicators remains questionable: Genetic loading, neuropathological findings, positive symptoms, and age at onset of the illness. Equally open are these questions: How are the various indicators interrelated and for what span of time have they a predictive power? Psychosocial indicators have more predictive significance than the so far known biological variables. Probably the difficulties in finding valid predictors are not only related to unsolved methodological problems, but above all to intrinsic characteristics of the illness itself. |
