运用AHP和云重心评价法的弹道导弹威胁评估

弹道导弹技术的发展和应用,对我国的安全环境造成了严重的威胁,合理地运用科学方法对弹道导弹威胁进行评估,可为我国的弹道导弹防御系统的发展和建设提供辅助决策的科学依据.通过确定弹道导弹威胁评估指标集,综合AHP和云重心方法的有关知识,建立各指标的云模型及其多维加权综合云的重心表示;应用云重心评价法给出威胁度的定量评估值,结合实例分析得出：该方法评估弹道导弹威胁可减少人为主观判断引起的偏差,具有可操作性.

Threat Evaluation of Ballistic Missile by Using AHP and Cloud Centroid Method

With the development and application of ballistic missile technology,the safety environment in our country is threatened seriously.The scientific evidence of aid decision making can be provided for the development and construction of ballistic missile defense system in our country by rationally applying the scientific method to evaluate the threat of ballistic missile.By setting up the evaluation index sets of ballistic missile threat and integrating AHPwith the cloud centroid method,the cloud model of each index and their expression of multi-dimensional weighted synthetic cloud centroid were estabilshed.Then the quantitative evaluation value of threat degree was given by using cloud centroid evaluation method.By analysis of examples,it is concluded that the error caused by man-made subjectively estimation can be decreased,which is of better maneuverability.