基于蒙特卡罗法的农业水利工程不可预见费研究

针对农业水利工程造价中费用构成的不足,提出增设不可预见费以保证项目投资的安全。为此,运用Spss软件对农业水利工程不可预见费中的各影响因素的分布情况进行拟合分析,建立不可预见费费率估算模型,采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对辽宁省法库县近三年已竣工的农业水利工程施工中不可预见因素数据进行模拟试验。结果表明,辽宁省法库地区农业水利工程不可预见费费率为5%,计算结果较为符合实际情况,为确定合理的建设投资标准提供了依据。

Research of Unforeseen Costs of Agricultural Water Conservancy Project Based on Monte Carlo Simulation Method

In view of the deficiency of the cost in the construction of agricultural water conservancy project, this paper proposed to add the unforeseen fees to guarantee the safety of project investment. Therefore, Spss software was used to conduct a fitting analysis of the distribution of various influencing factors in unforeseen fees of agricultural water conservancy projects. And then an unforeseen fees rate estimation model was established. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation method was adopted to simulate unforeseen data in the construction of completed agricultural water conservancy projects for nearly three years in Faku County, Liaoning Province. The results show that the unforeseen fees rate of agricultural water conservancy project in the Faku area of Liaoning Province is 5%, and the calculation result is in line with the actual situation, which provides the basis for determining the reasonable construction investment standard.