基于等效负荷区间和随机生产模拟的新能源接纳能力快速计算方法

新能源大规模接入电网，对电网的调峰造成了巨大压力，并导致系统弃风率增大，因而快速准确地计算系统常规机组的最优开机容量及其对应的弃风率十分重要。基于此，提出了基于等效负荷区间和随机生产模拟的新能源接纳能力快速计算方法。首先，引入等效负荷区间和可信容量的概念来初步确定传统机组开机容量；然后，运用随机生产模拟中的时序卷积和持续卷积计算各类电源上网电量，利用时序卷积将风电出力和负荷出力及联络线功率在时间尺度上进行序贯卷积，可以准确计算出该区域新能源接纳电量，利用持续卷积可以快速计算出常规机组周期内的发电量；最后，以某省电网为例，对所提模型、算法的有效性进行了验证。该方法可应用于风电电源规划、调度中开机容量的确定、风电场弃风率的快速计算等场合。

A Fast Calculation Method of Renewable Energy Accommodation Capacity Based on Equivalent Load Interval and Probability Production Simulation

ABSTRACT： The large-scale grid-connection of renewable energy makes the peak load regulation of power grid and the wind curtailment more and more severe, so it is necessary to calculate the unit-operation capacity of thermal unit and the corresponding wind curtailment fast and accurately. Therefore, this paper proposes a fast calculation method of accommodation capacity for renewable energy based on equivalent load interval and probability production simulation. Firstly, we determine the unit-operation capacity of traditional unit via equivalent load interval and credit capacity. Then, by means of the sequential convolution and non-sequential convolution in probability production simulation, we calculate the generating capacity of various types of generators. The sequential convolution is able to accurately calculate the accommodation capacity of new energy in this region by the convolution of wind power, load power and tie-line power on time scale； while the periodic generation capacity of traditional unit is obtained by non-sequential convolution. Finally, taking the power grid in a province as example, we verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm. The method can be used in the wind power planning, the unit-operation capacity determination during dispatching and the fast calculation of wind curtailment.