气候变化背景下中国沿海地区灾害风险研究与应对思考

沿海地区是城市化水平较高的区域,在全球气候变化背景下,该地区极端天气气候事件频发,灾害风险日益加大,已严重制约了该地区社会经济的可持续发展。论文立足气候变化背景,探讨沿海地区灾害风险变化的新特点,认为：当前极端天气气候灾害的发生仍具较大的不确实性,气候与灾害在时空尺度上呈现多样性变化特征,各气象灾害风险存在较大差异性,灾害系统构成要素也更加复杂。鉴于气候变化给沿海地区灾害风险研究带来新的挑战,文章提出在气候变化背景下,沿海地区灾害风险系统的构建应关注灾害的时空尺度变化、多灾种灾害的协同效应、城市化与气候变化,并构建了基于气候变化背景下的灾害风险系统框架。最后,为提升气候变化背景下我国沿海地区灾害风险应对能力建设,提出以下建议：注重灾害防御系统的多样化、注重灾害防御系统的稳健性、实现多灾种灾害信息的共享、强化承灾主体的自恢复能力、加强灾害风险分担与转移能力建设、逐步适应气候变化背景下的极端天气与自然灾害。

Understanding the climate change and disaster risks in coastal areas of China to develop coping strategies

In the context of global climate change, extreme weather events and the concomitant natural disasters are becoming a primary risk restricting the socioeconomic development in coastal areas that are often highly urbanized. This study sets out to explore the new characteristics of natural hazards and disasters in the coastal areas of China against the backdrop of a changing climate. Major conclusions are as follows. First, the occurrences of extreme weather and climatic events are considerably uncertain. The climate and disasters are different across various temporal and spatial scales, and the components of the disaster risk system become more complicated. Second, in view of the new challenges brought by climate change, we suggest paying close attention to three issues in the future, including the change of temporal and spatial scales that are used to depict the disasters, the synergism of multi-disasters, and the effects of climate change and urbanization. Based on these, a new framework of disaster risk system is established to reflect the qualities of disasters in complex spatiotemporal contexts. Lastly, to develop more effective coping strategies for the climate and natural hazards and disasters in coastal areas, it is necessary to promote diversification of the disaster prevention system and enhance its robustness, and to strengthen the self-recovery capability of the social, economic, and ecological environments. Meanwhile, information sharing in multi-disaster management and risk sharing and transfer policies are also important for accommodating the negative impacts of extreme events and disasters coming with climate change.