产业集聚对黄河流域工业韧性的影响研究

经济韧性是经济地理学领域的研究热点，区域产业结构被认为是影响经济韧性的最重要因素。2019年以来，黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展已上升为国家战略，对黄河流域工业韧性进行系统评价并考察产业集聚对工业韧性的影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。以黄河流域为研究区域，从抵抗力和恢复力2个层面刻画区域工业韧性，构建计量模型考察专业化、多样性、相关多样性、非相关多样性等不同产业集聚类型对工业韧性的影响，研究发现：① 黄河流域工业韧性水平整体较高，绝大多数城市对外部冲击有着较强的抵抗力，同时在外部扰动退去后有着较强的恢复力；② 黄河流域工业韧性的空间差异显著：恢复力水平较高的地区主要集中在内蒙古、山东，甘肃和青海的恢复力相对较低；抵抗力水平在空间上呈西高东低的分布特征；③ 产业结构单一地区的工业发展更容易从外部扰动的影响中恢复，对某一产业的高度集中会增大区域工业受到外部冲击的风险，多样且关联的产业结构更有利于提高区域工业应对不利扰动的抵抗力，也有利于区域从危机影响中实现更快的恢复；④ 提高黄河流域的工业韧性，要避免对某一个产业的过度专业化集中，在推动产业多样化发展的同时，要注意提高产业的前后向联系和关联水平。

Influence of Industrial Agglomeration on the Industrial Resilience of the Yellow River Basin

Economic resilience is a hotspot in the field of economic geography, and regional industrial structure is considered to be the most important factor affecting economic resilience. At present, the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin has become a national strategy. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to scientifically evaluate the industrial toughness of the Yellow River Basin and to investigate the impact of industrial agglomeration on the industrial resilience. In this article, 90 cities in the Yellow River Basin are taken as research areas. The industrial resilience level of the region is measured from two levels of resistance and recoverability. An econometric model is constructed to examine the impact of different cluster types of industrial clusters, such as specialization, diversity, related diversity, and unrelated diversity, on the industrial resilience of the region. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) The industrial resilience level of the Yellow River Basin is relatively high as a whole. Most cities have strong resistance to external shocks and strong resilience after external disturbances recedes. 2) There are significant spatial differences in industrial resilience in the Yellow River Basin. The areas with high recoverability level are mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Shandong and some cities of Qinghai, while the resilience of Gansu and Qinghai is relatively low. The spatial distribution of resistance level is higher in the west and lower in the east. 3) Industrial development in a single industrial structure area is easier to recover from the impact of external disturbances. A high concentration of a certain industry will increase the risk of regional industry being subjected to external shocks. Diversified and related industrial structures are more conducive to improving the resistance of regional industry to adverse disturbances, and also to achieving faster regional recovery from the impact of the crisis. 4) In order to improve the industrial resilience of the Yellow River Basin, we should avoid over-specialization and concentration of an industry. While promoting the diversification of industries, we should also pay attention to improving the forward-backward linkages and linkages between industries.