俄罗斯油气政策与投资风险研究

俄罗斯为了适应不同时期经济发展和外交战略的需要,经常调整其油气政策,大体经历了私有化、再国有化和国家控制下的部分开放三个阶段,始终没有形成一个稳定的油气政策,而国际石油公司在俄投资所面临的最大风险就源于俄油气政策的不稳定性.当前,国际石油公司在俄投资主要面临政治、经济、管理体制和法律法规4方面的风险.政治方面,政策突变和恐怖活动是国际石油公司在俄投资所面临的最大风险；经济方面,俄罗斯单一的能源经济在面对国际金融危机时缺乏抵抗力,增加了在俄投资所面临的风险;管理体制方面,俄联邦政府-石油公司-地方政府的混合型管理体制造成国际石油公司在俄投资阻力重重；法律法规方面,俄罗斯不时调整、出台新的法律法规,极大地缩短了国际石油公司的风险预警时间.对此,在进入俄油气领域时,中国石油公司应特别加强与俄罗斯国家控股石油公司的合作；利用资产交换项目,曲线进入俄油气勘探开发市场;发挥自身技术比较优势,实现有效合作；注重工程服务项目与勘探开发项目齐头并进；要充分把握两个有利时间点,当机遇来临之时,果断介入.

A Study on Russian Petroleum Policy and Investment Risks

Russia often adjusts its oil and gas policies to cater to its economic growth and diplomatic strategies in different stages.The country′s oil and gas industry has undergone three major stages-privatization,re-nationalization and partial opening to outside completion under state control.The country′s oil and gas policies have never been stable,posing the biggest risk for international oil companies that are investing in the country.International oil companies face four major risks when investing in Russia′s oil industry-political risk,economic risk,administrative risk and regulation risk.Politically,abrupt policy changes and terrorism are the biggest risks faced by international oil companies investing in Russia.Economically,Russia′s energy export-relied economy is vulnerable to international financial crisis and this adds to the risk faced when investing in Russia.Administratively,the mixed administrative mechanism involving the federal government,oil companies and local governments has created enormous resistance for international oil companies intending to invest in Russia.On laws and regulations,Russia has from time to time revised and enacted laws and regulations,which has greatly shortened the risk warning time for international oil companies.When tapping the Russian oil and gas sector,Chinese oil companies should strengthen their cooperation with Russia′s national oil companies,enter the Russian oil and gas exploration and development sector by means of asset swap,take full advantage of their comparative technical advantages,pay equal attention to engineering service projects and exploration and development projects,and decisively step in when opportunities pop up.