基于层次分析综合指数法的大坝震后震损破坏综合评价

近年来西南地区地震频繁发生,对该地区大坝造成不同程度的震损破坏,为了探究地震对水库、大坝等水利工程产生的风险及其破坏规律,需要对大坝的震损破坏进行评价分析。选取“汶川5·12”地震后岷江上游的14座大坝为评价研究对象,同时考虑水利工程设计、运行管理、地震特性和震损特征4个方面的影响因素,筛选与大坝震损破坏紧密相关的11项指标,构建大坝震损破坏综合评价指标体系,进而运用层次分析综合指数法建立了综合评价模型。根据该模型对14座大坝工程的震损状态进行实算综合评价,并对各个影响因素的重要性程度分析辨别,评价结果与现场调查情况基本相符,说明综合评价指标选择及其权重确定的合理性,以及层次评价方法的可行性。本次评价结果能为大中型水电工程科学防震提供重要依据。

Comprehensive Assessment of Seismic Damage Based on Hierarchy Process in Consideration of Synthetic Indexes

In recent years,earthquakes occurred frequently in the Southwest of China,damaging dams in the region to different extents.Assessment on the seismic damage is necessary to exploring the risk and damage regularity for reservoirs and dams.Fourteen dams in the upstream of Minjiang River after “5·1 2 Wenchuan earthquake”are se-lected as evaluation objects.Moreover,impact factors inclusive of project design,operation and management,seis-mic properties and earthquake damage characteristics are considered,and 1 1 indexes are selected to form an index system and their weights are determined as well based on the criterion layer.Furthermore,synthetic index method of analytic hierarchy process is used to establish a model of comprehensive assessment.The model is applied to cal-culate the seismic damage status of 1 4 dams and discriminate the importance degree of each impact factor.The as-sessment result is almost consistent with the site investigation,which confirms that the evaluation indexes and their weights are reasonably determined.The result is an important basis for relieving earthquake damage scientifically for large or medium-sized hydropower projects.