基于BP-ANN的光伏发电功率超短期预测方法 |
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引用本文: | 常学飞,杨薏霏,王志煜,李德鑫,袁野.基于BP-ANN的光伏发电功率超短期预测方法[J].吉林电力,2014(3):24-26,40. |
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作者姓名: | 常学飞 杨薏霏 王志煜 李德鑫 袁野 |
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作者单位: | [1]国网吉林省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,长春130021 [2]国网长春供电公司,长春130021 [3]国网通化供电公司,吉林通化134001 |
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摘 要: | 针对光伏发电的间歇性和波动性问题,采用基于BP-ANN建立光伏发电系统输出功率超短期预测模型,利用输出功率的历史值、过往及预测日气象信息,对输出功率进行预测,并提出适用的预测流程及预测误差评估方法。实际应用以及与实时监测数据对比,表明该方法方法误差较小,合格率较高,能够满足应用的要求。
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关 键 词: | 光伏发电 功率预测 超短期 BP-ANN |
Ultra-short-term Forecasting Method for Photovoltaic Generation Output Power Based on BP-ANN |
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Abstract: | Aiming at the intermittent and fluctuation issue in photovoltaic (PV) generation, an uhra-short-term prediction model based on BP-ANN is proposed to forecast the output power of PV system. Historical output data , the past and forecasted meteorology information have been adopted to forecast the output power. Applicable forecasting process and error evaluation method have been proposed. Practical application and comparison with real-time monitoring data proves that this method shows low error, higher qualification rate , which could meet the application requirements. |
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Keywords: | photovoltaic generation output power forecasting ultra-short-term BP-ANN |
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