| 基于全概率公式直接推求管运洪水 |
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| 引用本文： | 张泽慧,覃光华.基于全概率公式直接推求管运洪水[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2016,48(Z2):34-38. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张泽慧 覃光华 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川大学水利水电学院,四川大学水利水电学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划973项目“梯级水库群全生命周期风险孕育机制与安全防控理论”课题一“梯级水库群风险孕育机制与动态风险评价”(2013CB036401) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文为保证防洪安全的前提下充分发挥水库的综合效益，提出了基于全概率公式推求管运洪水的方法，并详细阐述了其基本原理；提出了在资料较短或前、后汛期洪水特性大致相同的情况下运用全概率公式推求管运洪水的实际方法；以马边站的洪水资料进行实例研究，其结果表明基于全概率公式推算出来的管运洪水既能使水库工程达到防洪标准，又能充分发挥水库的综合效益。
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| 关 键 词： | 管运洪水 全概率公式 防洪标准 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/10/8 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016/1/20 0:00:00 |
Calculation of the flood specified for management based on the total probability formula |
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| zhang ze hui and qin guang hua.Calculation of the flood specified for management based on the total probability formula[J].Journal of Sichuan University (Engineering Science Edition),2016,48(Z2):34-38. |
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| Authors: | zhang ze hui and qin guang hua |
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| Affiliation: | School of hydraulic Eng., Sichuan Univ. |
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| Abstract: | In order to get full use of the reservoirs under the condition of ensuring the safety of flood control, the basic principle of calculating the flood specified for management based on the total probability formula was expounded in this paper. It also put forward the actual method of calculating the flood specified for management based on the total probability formula when there is little data or the flood characteristics of the pre-flood seasons and the post-flood seasons are same roughly. In the case of Mabian hydrologic station,the results showed that the flood specified for management calculated by the total probability formula not only can reach the flood control standard,but also can help the reservoir to maximize the benefits. |
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| Keywords: | The flood specified for management The total probability formula Flood control standard |
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