特大型矿井持续开采的合理规模分析

基于我国特大型矿井生产现状分析，以济三煤矿为例，针对其煤层地质条件和开采技术条件，运用模糊综合评判方法，对未来10～15a要开采的114个工作面进行开采工艺性综合评价与分类．结合综合评价值和计算机模拟结果，构建了能综合反映“人-机-环境”三因素影响的单产预测新模型，并对114个工作面单产进行了预测．以此为依据，进行了工作面合理配置与矿井生产能力分析．结果表明：济三煤矿合理的生产规模为650万t／a．

Analysis of Rational Scale of Durative Exploitation in Oversize Mine

Based on the analysis of production current situation of the oversize mine in China, taking Jisan coal mine as an example, aiming at its geological conditions of coal seam and exploitation technology, the exploitation technologies of 114 working faces which will be exploited in the following 10~15 a were evaluated and classified using the fuzzy synthesis evaluation method. Combined the values of comprehensive evaluation with computer simulation results, a new forecasting model which can synthetically reflect the influence of the labor, machine and environment on the working face output was proposed, and the 114 working faces' outputs were forecasted. The working faces configuration and the throughput of coal mine were analyzed based on the forecast results. The results show that the rational production scale of Jisan coal mine is 650 ten thousand t/a.